NBA games

MIA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
140–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA34383335140
WSH23293332117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home WSH
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Simone Fontecchio S 27 24 4 2
Pelle Larsson 27 24 0 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 36 23 4 8
Bam Adebayo S 38 20 11 8
Kasparas Jakucionis S 31 16 5 4
Kel'el Ware S 22 12 8 3
Andrew Wiggins S 23 11 3 5
Keshad Johnson 30 10 4 0
Jahmir Young 1 0 0 1
Trevor Keels 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington S 34 30 2 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 22 25 5 5
Will Riley 28 16 3 2
Sharife Cooper 21 11 1 7
Anthony Gill S 35 10 3 1
Julian Reese S 37 10 6 3
Leaky Black S 32 8 2 3
Jamir Watkins 31 7 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes alley oop layup (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
2 Will Riley WSH
9%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
4 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Julian Reese WSH
7%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
9 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 22.3 4.6 5.3
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.0 12.6 5.4
3 Will Riley WSH 20.8 4.8 4.3
4 Norman Powell MIA 17.0 3.9 2.4
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.7 4.5 4.4
6 Julian Reese WSH 15.5 12.6 2.8
7 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.4 5.0 3.8
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.0 4.9 2.5
9 Bub Carrington WSH 14.0 2.7 5.7
10 Jaden Hardy WSH 13.5 2.4 2.2
11 Anthony Gill WSH 13.3 4.6 2.6
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 13.2 3.1 6.5
13 Andrew Wiggins MIA 13.1 4.5 2.1
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.5 5.9 1.8
15 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.9 2.8 4.4
16 Tre Johnson WSH 10.9 3.1 2.1
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.7 3.7 1.3
18 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.6 5.0 2.2
19 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.8 7.0 1.5
20 Leaky Black WSH 8.7 5.3 1.8
21 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.3 2.5 2.7
22 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.9 2.0 1.1
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.8 2.3 0.8
24 Myron Gardner MIA 4.1 2.8 1.0
25 Trevor Keels MIA 3.8 1.7 0.8
26 Jahmir Young MIA 3.2 1.5 0.8
27 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.8 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.