NBA games

DET @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
118–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36322525118
CHA30352510100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHA
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 22 20 9 4
Duncan Robinson S 26 19 3 1
Cade Cunningham S 28 14 2 7
Ronald Holland II 21 13 5 1
Ausar Thompson S 25 12 5 6
Tobias Harris S 25 8 6 0
Daniss Jenkins 18 6 1 3
Caris LeVert 15 6 2 3
Javonte Green 15 6 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 16 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 33 27 5 8
Brandon Miller S 31 22 3 0
Coby White 16 11 2 1
Kon Knueppel S 29 10 4 1
Miles Bridges S 23 10 8 3
Moussa Diabate S 25 8 6 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 23 4 4 1
Grant Williams 22 2 4 0
Sion James 17 2 3 0
Xavier Tillman 4 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
9 Kevin Huerter DET
7%
10 Tobias Harris DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
11%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.8 4.4 7.0
2 Jalen Duren DET 22.6 9.8 3.7
3 Cade Cunningham DET 19.8 4.5 9.4
4 Daniss Jenkins DET 19.6 4.1 7.1
5 Coby White CHA 18.6 3.7 3.4
6 Brandon Miller CHA 17.8 4.4 3.2
7 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 5.8 2.7
8 Kon Knueppel CHA 15.3 5.2 3.6
9 Tobias Harris DET 12.9 4.7 3.7
10 Kevin Huerter DET 12.2 3.4 3.1
11 Duncan Robinson DET 11.7 2.8 2.4
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.9 5.6 3.6
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.9 3.7 1.2
14 Caris LeVert DET 8.6 3.2 2.8
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.2 8.3 2.2
16 Paul Reed DET 8.0 4.5 1.4
17 Javonte Green DET 7.2 3.1 1.1
18 Grant Williams CHA 6.1 3.4 1.2
19 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.5 1.1
20 Sion James CHA 5.9 3.0 1.9
21 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.1 2.2
22 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.4 3.9 0.8
23 Josh Green CHA 3.5 1.2 0.7
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.2 2.9 0.8
25 Chaz Lanier DET 2.7 0.9 0.6
26 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.4 1.3 0.5
27 Tre Mann CHA 1.8 0.4 0.4
28 Isaac Jones DET 1.8 1.0 0.3
29 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.