NBA games

LAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
119–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28252937119
GS23262430103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home GS
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 32 26 8 11
Deandre Ayton S 31 21 5 1
Jake LaRavia S 31 16 7 4
Luke Kennard S 32 14 2 8
Nick Smith Jr. 11 12 0 0
Rui Hachimura S 30 12 2 2
Bronny James 21 10 1 3
Drew Timme 9 4 1 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 26 2 6 5
Kobe Bufkin 4 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 24 17 1 1
Nate Williams S 35 17 4 3
Pat Spencer S 38 12 4 6
Malevy Leons 24 12 4 3
Charles Bassey 30 12 13 1
Seth Curry 23 11 2 0
Gary Payton II 14 10 1 0
LJ Cryer 15 8 1 2
Draymond Green S 22 2 5 6
De'Anthony Melton S 15 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 12-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
3 Gui Santos GS
9%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
5 Malevy Leons GS
8%
6 De'Anthony Melton GS
7%
7 Nate Williams GS
7%
8 Drew Timme LAL
7%
9 Pat Spencer GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
23%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 21.4 7.7 7.9
2 Gui Santos GS 19.8 4.6 4.2
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 19.5 4.8 4.5
4 Gary Payton II GS 13.2 5.7 2.5
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 13.1 3.9 3.9
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.8 6.3 1.1
7 Pat Spencer GS 10.8 3.2 3.9
8 Draymond Green GS 10.3 5.1 6.3
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.0 3.4 0.9
10 Luke Kennard LAL 9.5 3.5 3.0
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.4 4.3 1.4
12 LJ Cryer GS 7.2 1.4 1.1
13 Seth Curry GS 6.1 1.2 1.0
14 Will Richard GS 5.8 1.9 1.2
15 Nate Williams GS 4.9 1.6 0.7
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.6 2.8 1.1
17 Charles Bassey GS 4.2 3.6 0.6
18 Malevy Leons GS 4.2 2.3 1.2
19 Drew Timme LAL 4.1 1.5 0.8
20 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.4 1.0
21 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.0 1.1 1.0
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 2.5 0.8
23 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.2 1.3 0.7
24 Adou Thiero LAL 3.2 1.9 0.7
25 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.1 1.7 0.6
26 Chris Manon LAL 2.4 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.