NBA games

PHI @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
102–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI26301729102
HOU35382317113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home HOU
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 33 24 3 5
VJ Edgecombe S 40 20 6 8
Quentin Grimes 26 20 2 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 16 4 1
Paul George S 24 7 4 1
Andre Drummond 30 5 15 5
Justin Edwards 13 4 2 0
Adem Bona S 15 2 2 0
Dominick Barlow 27 2 8 0
Jabari Walker 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 29 7 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 19 5 0
Amen Thompson S 42 19 5 4
Tari Eason 27 15 8 2
Josh Okogie S 21 9 11 2
Alperen Sengun S 33 8 12 4
Aaron Holiday 14 7 3 1
Reed Sheppard 19 6 0 1
Clint Capela 12 1 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 2-foot running dunk (VJ Edgecombe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
4 Paul George PHI
11%
5 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
8%
10 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.8 5.0 6.8
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.7 4.4 6.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.4 9.2 6.5
4 Paul George PHI 22.2 5.5 4.3
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.6 5.4 5.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 19.3 7.8 5.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.7 6.9 2.4
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 16.5 4.2 5.0
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.6 5.7 1.7
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.6 3.9 2.6
11 Tari Eason HOU 10.2 5.5 1.3
12 Trendon Watford PHI 6.9 3.0 2.2
13 Justin Edwards PHI 6.9 1.2 1.1
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.3 1.7 1.6
15 Tristen Newton HOU 5.9 1.7 1.6
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.4 5.2 1.5
17 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.4 4.9 1.3
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.2 4.0 0.6
19 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 5.0 2.1 0.9
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 2.1 1.4
21 Jabari Walker PHI 3.5 1.7 0.6
22 Clint Capela HOU 3.4 4.7 0.8
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 1.9 0.8
24 Josh Okogie HOU 3.3 1.6 0.9
25 JD Davison HOU 2.9 1.0 0.8
26 Jeff Green HOU 2.4 1.0 0.5
27 Tyrese Martin PHI 2.1 1.1 0.7
28 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.0 1.0 0.5
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.2 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.