NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29243023106
NY26282731112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 40 24 13 8
Payton Pritchard 36 23 3 6
Baylor Scheierman 30 20 4 0
Neemias Queta S 24 10 10 2
Nikola Vucevic 24 10 5 2
Derrick White S 38 8 3 1
Sam Hauser S 31 6 2 3
Jordan Walsh S 17 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 35 26 1 3
Jalen Brunson S 37 25 1 10
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 16 12 4
OG Anunoby S 36 13 4 1
Mikal Bridges S 31 10 2 6
Jordan Clarkson 14 8 1 2
Mitchell Robinson 19 7 7 0
Miles McBride 19 4 1 2
Landry Shamet 19 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes running layup (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
16%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.5 3.3 8.4
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.1 9.9 6.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.7 10.9 3.9
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.7 3.7 3.8
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.0 4.8 2.3
6 Josh Hart NY 13.1 6.5 3.9
7 Mikal Bridges NY 13.0 3.1 2.9
8 Neemias Queta BOS 12.3 8.1 2.3
9 Derrick White BOS 12.2 4.2 3.8
10 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.4 2.6
11 Sam Hauser BOS 8.4 3.4 1.2
12 Nikola Vucevic BOS 8.2 5.7 1.6
13 Luka Garza BOS 7.6 3.8 0.7
14 Landry Shamet NY 7.3 2.1 1.4
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.5 7.6 0.9
16 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.2 3.0 1.8
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.1 2.2 1.3
18 Jose Alvarado NY 5.8 1.3 3.4
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.2 3.0 0.8
20 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.1 0.8 0.7
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.8 0.9 0.5
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.3 1.9 0.4
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.2 0.8 0.4
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.0 1.7 0.4
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.7 1.8 0.4
26 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.1 0.6 0.4
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.1 1.3 0.4
28 John Tonje BOS 1.0 0.6 0.2
29 Max Shulga BOS 1.0 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.