NBA games

IND @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
123–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31323525123
BKN1423352294

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BKN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 19 26 9 3
Micah Potter S 23 18 14 2
Ethan Thompson S 37 15 7 6
Jay Huff 25 14 7 3
Jarace Walker S 30 14 9 8
Jalen Slawson S 29 12 7 5
Quenton Jackson S 26 12 6 7
Taelon Peter 30 8 4 3
Kam Jones 22 4 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
E.J. Liddell S 37 26 10 1
Ben Saraf S 28 19 5 6
Tyson Etienne S 39 14 5 4
Jalen Wilson 37 11 5 2
Malachi Smith S 40 11 8 6
Trevon Scott S 40 11 8 1
Drake Powell 20 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Slawson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Slawson makes dunk (Micah Potter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarace Walker IND
10%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
3 Ben Saraf BKN
9%
4 Drake Powell BKN
8%
5 E.J. Liddell BKN
7%
6 Malachi Smith BKN
7%
7 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
8 Danny Wolf BKN
7%
9 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
10 Ethan Thompson IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
55%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
15%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jarace Walker IND 15.7 5.5 3.6
2 Ben Saraf BKN 13.4 3.6 4.3
3 Obi Toppin IND 12.5 3.9 2.9
4 Ziaire Williams BKN 12.1 2.6 1.8
5 Kobe Brown IND 10.6 4.4 2.6
6 Drake Powell BKN 10.0 2.8 1.7
7 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.9 3.2 1.7
8 Jay Huff IND 9.6 4.0 2.0
9 Quenton Jackson IND 9.4 2.8 3.6
10 Tyson Etienne BKN 9.4 2.0 2.2
11 Nic Claxton BKN 9.3 6.3 1.7
12 Ethan Thompson IND 9.3 2.6 1.5
13 Danny Wolf BKN 9.1 5.0 2.2
14 Jalen Slawson IND 8.9 4.5 2.2
15 Micah Potter IND 8.5 3.7 1.5
16 Chaney Johnson BKN 8.1 3.8 2.5
17 Malachi Smith BKN 8.1 2.6 2.2
18 Trevon Scott BKN 7.7 5.0 1.9
19 Taelon Peter IND 7.5 2.3 1.4
20 Ochai Agbaji BKN 7.4 2.3 0.9
21 Ben Sheppard IND 6.9 2.5 1.2
22 E.J. Liddell BKN 6.4 3.2 1.5
23 Kam Jones IND 6.1 2.0 4.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.