NBA games

CHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
119–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI32203532119
WSH24272334108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home WSH
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 30 31 6 3
Collin Sexton S 34 27 3 2
Leonard Miller S 39 26 11 3
Patrick Williams S 39 15 8 4
Yuki Kawamura 22 6 4 4
Guerschon Yabusele S 16 5 5 3
Rob Dillingham 27 5 5 4
Mac McClung 15 2 2 2
Lachlan Olbrich 17 2 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley S 38 23 9 7
Julian Reese S 39 16 15 1
Anthony Gill S 39 14 3 3
Leaky Black S 41 14 9 0
Bub Carrington S 24 12 0 4
Justin Champagnie 18 11 8 2
Jamir Watkins 28 9 6 3
Sharife Cooper 14 9 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tre Jones · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Tre Jones makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Patrick Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
13%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
3 Leonard Miller CHI
9%
4 Julian Reese WSH
9%
5 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
6 Collin Sexton CHI
8%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
8 Anthony Gill WSH
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tre Jones CHI 20.9 4.8 6.5
2 Will Riley WSH 20.0 4.2 4.2
3 Collin Sexton CHI 19.8 4.3 3.5
4 Anfernee Simons CHI 16.5 3.2 2.8
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.3 4.9 2.5
6 Bub Carrington WSH 15.3 2.8 5.8
7 Leonard Miller CHI 14.8 6.7 1.8
8 Jaden Hardy WSH 14.0 2.4 2.3
9 Julian Reese WSH 13.9 11.8 2.5
10 Anthony Gill WSH 13.4 4.8 2.6
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.5 5.3 1.8
12 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 11.5 3.9 1.4
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 11.4 3.2 1.8
14 Rob Dillingham CHI 11.4 3.3 2.2
15 Tre Johnson WSH 11.0 3.1 2.2
16 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.8 4.9 1.6
17 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.7 4.8 2.2
18 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.6 2.7 4.3
19 Zach Collins CHI 9.3 5.6 1.8
20 Leaky Black WSH 8.5 4.5 2.1
21 Patrick Williams CHI 7.1 3.3 1.8
22 Lachlan Olbrich CHI 6.3 6.9 1.7
23 Mac McClung CHI 5.7 1.9 0.9
24 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.8 1.6 1.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.