NBA games

MIA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
114–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA26244024114
TOR32373326128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home TOR
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 37 24 11 8
Davion Mitchell S 37 15 3 11
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 15 2 4
Tyler Herro S 28 15 4 4
Pelle Larsson S 32 10 4 2
Norman Powell 17 7 0 0
Kel'el Ware 11 7 4 1
Keshad Johnson 11 6 2 1
Trevor Keels 3 6 0 0
Andrew Wiggins S 22 5 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 38 7 7
RJ Barrett S 35 22 6 3
Collin Murray-Boyles 22 17 8 1
Scottie Barnes S 25 13 4 2
Immanuel Quickley S 23 11 3 4
Jamal Shead 22 8 1 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 25 7 3 2
Jakob Poeltl S 17 6 2 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 18 5 4 1
Jamison Battle 3 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 3-foot two point shot (Pelle Larsson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.1 5.1 4.5
2 Tyler Herro MIA 21.6 4.7 4.8
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.6 10.8 4.1
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.3 5.1 3.4
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.2 7.0 9.8
6 Norman Powell MIA 17.8 3.9 2.7
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.0 4.4 4.2
8 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.9 4.7 3.6
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.9 5.7 2.2
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR 13.4 3.6 5.5
11 Andrew Wiggins MIA 13.2 4.6 1.9
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 6.9 2.2
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.9 3.0 5.2
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 11.5 4.0 2.2
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.9 5.9 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 9.5 2.0 8.2
17 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.5 6.7 1.3
18 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.1 2.2 2.5
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.6 2.0 1.1
20 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.6 1.7 1.0
21 Jamison Battle TOR 5.0 2.0 0.9
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.7 2.0 0.6
23 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.6 2.0 0.8
24 Myron Gardner MIA 3.8 2.8 1.0
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.5 3.0 1.0
26 Trevor Keels MIA 3.1 1.3 0.7
27 Alijah Martin TOR 2.4 1.2 0.5
28 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.3 1.6 0.4
29 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 0.8 0.5
30 Jahmir Young MIA 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.