NBA games

DAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
107–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL29242727107
PHX33282724112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHX
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Poulakidas 29 23 1 1
Marvin Bagley III S 26 20 8 2
Max Christie S 33 18 2 2
Moussa Cisse 22 11 9 0
Cooper Flagg S 32 11 11 6
Ryan Nembhard S 32 9 5 7
Dwight Powell 16 4 3 3
AJ Johnson 17 4 1 3
Khris Middleton S 18 4 3 2
Tyler Smith 15 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 37 5 9
Dillon Brooks S 33 28 5 3
Royce O'Neale 23 14 4 1
Collin Gillespie 34 13 7 2
Jordan Goodwin S 13 9 3 1
Khaman Maluach S 30 4 14 0
Oso Ighodaro 18 4 1 0
Rasheer Fleming 14 3 0 0
Amir Coffey 6 0 0 0
Ryan Dunn 24 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Goodwin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jordan Goodwin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dwight Powell DAL
16%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
14%
3 Jalen Green PHX
12%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Devin Booker PHX
10%
7 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
8 Max Christie DAL
7%
9 Khris Middleton DAL
6%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
76%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
10%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 27.3 6.9 5.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.6 3.9 6.9
3 Jalen Green PHX 23.4 5.1 4.6
4 Naji Marshall DAL 19.3 4.6 5.0
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 16.6 4.4 2.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.8 7.4 1.4
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.6 3.3 4.3
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX 11.2 7.8 3.1
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.0 5.9 2.2
10 Marvin Bagley III DAL 10.4 5.5 1.3
11 Max Christie DAL 9.8 3.1 1.6
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.7 4.1 2.1
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.3 3.0 5.3
14 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.1 3.3 1.0
15 Khris Middleton DAL 6.5 2.9 1.6
16 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.0 4.1 1.3
17 John Poulakidas DAL 5.4 2.4 0.8
18 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.4 4.6 0.6
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.1 3.6 1.0
20 Amir Coffey PHX 3.5 1.7 0.8
21 Tyler Smith DAL 3.5 2.3 0.6
22 Koby Brea PHX 3.4 1.4 0.9
23 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.3 2.0 0.9
24 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.1 5.5 0.3
25 AJ Johnson DAL 3.0 1.5 0.8
26 CJ Huntley PHX 2.0 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.