NBA games

OKC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
128–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34352534128
LAC23263130110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAC
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 31 30 14 5
Isaiah Joe 23 21 2 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 20 1 11
Jalen Williams S 32 18 6 6
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 10 7 1
Ajay Mitchell 24 7 1 3
Luguentz Dort S 20 6 2 0
Jaylin Williams 14 5 4 1
Jared McCain 4 4 0 0
Cason Wallace 21 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 20 8 3
Kobe Sanders 24 17 2 1
Jordan Miller 30 16 3 6
Brook Lopez S 30 16 6 3
John Collins S 27 12 9 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 11 5 1
Bennedict Mathurin 24 10 2 2
Nicolas Batum 5 3 0 0
Kris Dunn S 27 3 1 6
Cam Christie 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 4-foot layup (John Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 Brook Lopez LAC
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
26%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.4 4.2 6.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.6 6.2 3.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 18.2 5.2 2.8
4 Jalen Williams OKC 16.5 4.2 5.0
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.2 7.8 1.4
6 John Collins LAC 14.0 5.6 1.6
7 Brook Lopez LAC 11.6 6.3 1.8
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 11.3 3.3 3.1
9 Jordan Miller LAC 9.9 3.1 2.4
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.4 4.8 1.7
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 3.1 1.8
12 Jared McCain OKC 8.4 2.3 1.2
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.1 1.1
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.4 3.6 3.2
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.3 2.5 1.2
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.9 1.7 1.5
17 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.5 8.8 3.5
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.9 2.0 1.0
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.7 5.3 1.6
20 Alex Caruso OKC 5.4 2.8 1.8
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.7 0.9
22 Nikola Topic OKC 4.7 1.9 2.6
23 Branden Carlson OKC 4.6 2.8 0.6
24 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.5 1.4 1.3
25 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.2 2.1 0.6
26 Norchad Omier LAC 3.2 1.7 0.5
27 Cam Christie LAC 2.9 1.8 0.7
28 Sean Pedulla LAC 2.9 1.1 0.8
29 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.3 1.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.