NBA games

MEM @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
119–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM33392225119
DEN37313929136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DEN
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 22 27 6 2
Taylor Hendricks S 22 16 6 1
Lucas Williamson 37 16 6 1
Toby Okani S 33 15 0 2
Walter Clayton Jr. S 22 15 2 3
Adama Bal 39 12 6 5
Jahmai Mashack S 33 9 3 7
Dariq Whitehead 28 7 7 3
Taj Gibson 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 35 26 7 5
Cameron Johnson S 30 18 3 2
Christian Braun S 27 14 2 1
Nikola Jokic S 31 14 16 10
Jonas Valanciunas 13 14 4 0
Bruce Brown 26 13 7 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 13 4 2
Julian Strawther 15 10 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 22 6 2 6
Jalen Pickett 6 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 15-foot jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
2 Christian Braun DEN
11%
3 GG Jackson MEM
11%
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
10%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 33.2 13.7 12.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 27.5 5.0 8.5
3 GG Jackson MEM 17.8 4.7 2.1
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.9 5.4 3.3
5 Christian Braun DEN 16.7 5.5 2.7
6 Cameron Johnson DEN 16.5 4.9 3.6
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 14.9 4.4 1.6
8 Cedric Coward MEM 13.5 3.8 2.7
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.1 3.1 1.6
10 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 11.7 2.7 5.2
11 Taylor Hendricks MEM 9.5 3.9 1.3
12 Cam Spencer MEM 9.5 2.1 5.6
13 Bruce Brown DEN 9.4 3.6 1.9
14 Adama Bal MEM 9.4 2.8 1.7
15 Dariq Whitehead MEM 8.9 2.3 1.6
16 Lucas Williamson MEM 8.7 3.0 2.6
17 Jahmai Mashack MEM 7.9 3.0 1.8
18 Toby Okani MEM 7.8 3.8 1.0
19 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.4 3.9 1.1
20 Julian Strawther DEN 5.6 2.1 1.2
21 KJ Simpson DEN 5.5 1.9 2.2
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.6 1.3 0.6
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.5 1.3 0.7
24 Taj Gibson MEM 3.3 2.1 0.7
25 Tyus Jones DEN 3.2 1.2 1.0
26 Curtis Jones DEN 3.1 1.2 0.7
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.