NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
101–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR23282228101
SA32292724112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 29 6 6
Scoot Henderson S 38 20 3 2
Toumani Camara S 40 18 4 6
Jrue Holiday S 31 13 10 6
Donovan Clingan S 28 11 11 5
Robert Williams III 13 4 7 1
Blake Wesley 4 2 2 0
Sidy Cissoko 9 2 0 0
Kris Murray 12 2 0 0
Matisse Thybulle 24 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 25 5 7
Keldon Johnson 29 20 8 1
Carter Bryant 25 17 5 4
Devin Vassell S 31 14 8 1
Dylan Harper S 33 13 6 4
Luke Kornet S 26 10 5 6
Harrison Barnes 27 9 2 2
Jordan McLaughlin 9 2 2 0
Julian Champagnie S 27 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 8-foot two point shot (Donovan Clingan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
15%
2 Deni Avdija POR
14%
3 Scoot Henderson POR
12%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
5 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
9%
9 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
10 Dylan Harper SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.0 7.1 6.6
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.9 4.2 3.3
3 Jrue Holiday POR 18.1 3.9 6.4
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 16.0 4.0 5.3
5 Dylan Harper SA 15.9 4.0 4.0
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.1 3.1 3.9
7 Toumani Camara POR 14.7 4.3 1.9
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.8 4.1 1.9
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.9 10.2 1.8
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.6 4.1 2.8
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.1 5.4 1.8
12 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.9 2.9 1.5
13 Caleb Love POR 7.9 1.6 2.2
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.2 2.1 1.4
15 Kris Murray POR 6.4 2.9 2.4
16 Luke Kornet SA 5.9 5.3 1.3
17 Robert Williams III POR 5.6 6.9 1.0
18 Vit Krejci POR 4.7 2.6 1.4
19 Lindy Waters III SA 3.7 1.2 0.8
20 Carter Bryant SA 3.6 2.7 0.9
21 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.2 1.9 1.5
22 Blake Wesley POR 2.9 0.8 1.0
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.5 1.2 0.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 0.7 1.0
25 Chris Youngblood POR 2.4 0.8 0.5
26 Harrison Ingram SA 2.3 1.1 0.4
27 Yang Hansen POR 1.8 1.1 0.3
28 Mason Plumlee SA 1.7 2.0 0.7
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.