NBA games

MIL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
111–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28292925111
DET34413725137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DET
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 33 23 2 6
Ousmane Dieng S 27 17 5 4
Cormac Ryan 25 16 0 0
Taurean Prince S 28 15 2 2
AJ Green S 30 13 4 2
Jericho Sims S 39 11 11 10
Gary Trent Jr. 19 7 0 1
Alex Antetokounmpo 4 5 3 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 6 4 2 0
Pete Nance 18 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 28 21 9 3
Duncan Robinson S 24 20 1 3
Ronald Holland II 22 18 3 2
Cade Cunningham S 26 13 5 10
Paul Reed 10 10 3 1
Ausar Thompson S 24 10 4 4
Tobias Harris S 23 10 5 3
Daniss Jenkins 20 9 5 6
Isaiah Stewart 11 8 1 0
Javonte Green 16 8 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"AJ Green makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Jericho Sims assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
14%
2 Ousmane Dieng MIL
9%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
6 Daniss Jenkins DET
8%
7 Paul Reed DET
7%
8 Jericho Sims MIL
7%
9 Tobias Harris DET
6%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
14%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 24.3 10.5 4.0
2 Daniss Jenkins DET 22.8 4.6 8.2
3 Cade Cunningham DET 21.6 4.4 10.5
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 21.6 4.4 5.9
5 Ousmane Dieng MIL 14.8 5.6 4.6
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.6 5.4 4.5
7 Taurean Prince MIL 11.8 3.9 2.5
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.7 2.9 2.4
9 AJ Green MIL 11.5 3.6 2.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.0 6.1 4.1
11 Pete Nance MIL 9.9 4.6 2.2
12 Jericho Sims MIL 9.3 7.2 2.7
13 Paul Reed DET 9.0 5.4 1.8
14 Caris LeVert DET 8.7 3.2 3.0
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.6 1.7 1.1
16 Cormac Ryan MIL 8.0 1.9 1.4
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.9 3.3 1.2
18 Javonte Green DET 7.6 3.1 1.3
19 Marcus Sasser DET 6.4 1.4 2.7
20 Ronald Holland II DET 6.3 2.6 1.1
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.5 2.2 1.3
22 Tolu Smith DET 3.8 3.4 0.9
23 Gary Harris MIL 3.6 1.4 0.9
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.4 1.6 0.8
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.1 1.1 0.7
26 Alex Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.6 0.4
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.