NBA games

MIN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
120–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN32213037120
ORL34293831132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home ORL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terrence Shannon Jr. 31 33 2 5
Jaden McDaniels S 19 18 2 2
Naz Reid S 24 15 5 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 21 12 0 2
Bones Hyland 23 9 1 0
Joan Beringer 23 9 8 1
Kyle Anderson S 24 8 7 2
Joe Ingles S 18 7 4 4
Julian Phillips 24 6 2 0
Jaylen Clark 33 3 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 29 20 8 6
Desmond Bane S 30 18 4 6
Franz Wagner S 22 17 0 2
Goga Bitadze 22 14 15 6
Tristan da Silva 20 12 2 2
Jalen Suggs S 25 11 0 4
Jevon Carter 15 11 0 2
Jamal Cain 16 8 2 1
Anthony Black 16 7 5 2
Alex Morales 5 6 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 2-foot layup (Kyle Anderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
17%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
14%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
11%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
9 Naz Reid MIN
0%
10 Bones Hyland MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
13%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.6 7.5 5.7
2 Desmond Bane ORL 21.6 4.8 4.5
3 Bones Hyland MIN 16.2 3.3 3.7
4 Franz Wagner ORL 16.0 4.2 2.8
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.8 6.8 1.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.6 4.7 6.5
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.5 3.7 2.2
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.3 3.5 2.2
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.8 6.0 1.7
10 Anthony Black ORL 12.7 3.4 2.5
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.2 3.0 2.9
12 Jamal Cain ORL 8.8 3.4 1.5
13 Jevon Carter ORL 6.8 2.2 1.8
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 4.5 1.7
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.5 3.4 3.1
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.2 1.7 0.8
17 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.6 2.2 0.7
18 Alex Morales ORL 4.6 2.6 1.6
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.0 1.8 0.9
20 Colin Castleton ORL 3.9 2.8 0.8
21 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.4 1.0
22 Enrique Freeman MIN 3.7 2.0 0.6
23 Joan Beringer MIN 3.2 2.1 0.6
24 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 3.2 2.0 0.4
25 Zyon Pullin MIN 3.1 1.2 1.6
26 Noah Penda ORL 3.1 1.6 1.1
27 Julian Phillips MIN 2.7 1.2 0.6
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.