NBA games

ATL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
116–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29382029116
CLE33274418122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CLE
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 25 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga 30 24 6 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 18 5 0
Dyson Daniels S 33 12 7 6
CJ McCollum S 32 12 4 4
Jalen Johnson S 34 12 11 6
Gabe Vincent 15 10 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 16 3 5 1
Corey Kispert 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 31 7 4
Evan Mobley S 36 22 19 3
James Harden S 34 21 5 4
Jarrett Allen S 29 16 8 0
Max Strus 21 8 2 2
Dean Wade S 21 8 4 2
Sam Merrill 27 6 0 3
Dennis Schroder 15 5 1 3
Keon Ellis 22 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"James Harden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
6 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
7 CJ McCollum ATL
7%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
6%
9 Dennis Schroder CLE
6%
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.1 4.7 5.5
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.0 10.0 7.8
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.6 3.9 4.6
4 James Harden CLE 22.8 4.5 8.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 21.0 10.2 3.8
6 CJ McCollum ATL 20.3 3.4 5.6
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.2 9.0 1.7
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.8 6.9 4.4
9 Sam Merrill CLE 13.3 3.9 2.7
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.1 6.7 3.1
11 Max Strus CLE 11.2 5.5 2.2
12 Keon Ellis CLE 10.3 2.8 1.9
13 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 8.9 3.8 1.8
14 Dennis Schroder CLE 8.6 2.6 4.0
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.7 3.0 0.8
16 Corey Kispert ATL 5.7 1.9 1.0
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.6 3.4 2.9
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.1 3.3 1.1
19 Dean Wade CLE 4.8 2.8 1.2
20 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.7 1.6 1.8
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.5 1.4 1.0
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.3 2.4 0.9
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.2 2.5 0.7
24 Tony Bradley ATL 4.2 3.3 0.7
25 Asa Newell ATL 3.9 1.9 0.5
26 Buddy Hield ATL 3.8 1.3 1.2
27 Riley Minix CLE 3.2 1.7 1.0
28 Olivier Sarr CLE 2.7 1.9 0.5
29 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.4 0.8 0.5
30 Christian Koloko ATL 2.2 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.