NBA games

HOU @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
119–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU21332738119
PHX37202721105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHX
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 24 4 3
Amen Thompson S 36 22 11 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 39 20 6 1
Aaron Holiday 21 12 0 0
Tari Eason 31 12 7 2
Reed Sheppard S 21 12 5 1
Alperen Sengun S 28 12 14 6
Jae'Sean Tate 7 2 2 3
Clint Capela 10 2 3 0
Josh Okogie 12 1 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 31 4 8
Mark Williams S 28 19 8 0
Jalen Green S 32 15 3 1
Jordan Goodwin S 25 11 4 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 10 3 1
Oso Ighodaro 19 8 5 1
Grayson Allen 26 8 4 2
Royce O'Neale 17 3 2 0
Khaman Maluach 1 0 0 0
Ryan Dunn 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Jalen Green PHX
12%
4 Mark Williams PHX
11%
5 Devin Booker PHX
11%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
7 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.7 5.1 6.6
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.3 3.8 6.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.2 8.5 6.3
4 Jalen Green PHX 21.6 4.6 4.4
5 Amen Thompson HOU 18.1 7.4 5.2
6 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.1 4.0 2.0
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.7 7.3 2.6
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.7 4.1 5.2
9 Grayson Allen PHX 14.1 2.9 3.6
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.5 3.3 4.6
11 Oso Ighodaro PHX 11.2 7.0 3.2
12 Tari Eason HOU 9.5 5.6 1.1
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.2 5.7 2.0
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.6 3.7 2.0
15 Mark Williams PHX 8.6 6.6 0.9
16 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.8 3.1 0.6
17 Tristen Newton HOU 5.4 1.6 1.4
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.5 1.6
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.9 3.3 0.9
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.9 2.1 1.3
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.3 3.5 0.3
22 Amir Coffey PHX 3.0 1.4 0.7
23 Josh Okogie HOU 2.8 1.3 0.6
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.8 1.6 0.5
25 Clint Capela HOU 2.7 3.8 0.7
26 JD Davison HOU 2.6 1.0 0.7
27 Koby Brea PHX 2.6 0.6 0.8
28 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 2.3 1.2 0.6
29 Jeff Green HOU 2.0 0.9 0.4
30 Isaiah Crawford HOU 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.