NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
103–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26292919103
LAC39262427116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 34 25 9 2
Marvin Bagley III 26 21 9 1
Ryan Nembhard 25 12 6 7
Max Christie S 29 12 5 1
Klay Thompson 26 11 3 2
Naji Marshall S 20 6 2 0
Tyler Smith 18 6 2 1
Dwight Powell S 19 4 8 1
John Poulakidas 19 3 6 0
Khris Middleton S 20 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 34 4 3
Darius Garland S 28 22 1 4
John Collins 28 12 7 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 11 10 2
Kobe Sanders 24 11 5 2
Bennedict Mathurin 27 9 6 3
Brook Lopez S 25 9 11 3
Jordan Miller 16 4 2 1
Kris Dunn S 27 2 7 3
Norchad Omier 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 3-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
12%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
3 Darius Garland LAC
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
6 Brook Lopez LAC
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
10%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
8%
10 Max Christie DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
40%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 26.7 6.7 6.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.7 6.8 3.7
3 Darius Garland LAC 23.2 3.5 7.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.4 5.7 3.2
5 Naji Marshall DAL 19.3 5.0 5.2
6 John Collins LAC 14.9 6.0 2.0
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.9 7.3 1.5
8 Brook Lopez LAC 13.1 6.4 2.2
9 Jordan Miller LAC 12.6 4.4 2.9
10 Klay Thompson DAL 9.9 1.8 1.5
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.8 4.8 2.0
12 Max Christie DAL 9.6 3.1 1.5
13 Marvin Bagley III DAL 8.8 5.3 1.3
14 Kris Dunn LAC 8.1 3.4 3.6
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.6 2.1 1.8
16 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.6 2.5 4.7
17 Khris Middleton DAL 6.5 3.1 1.7
18 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.7 2.0 1.6
19 John Poulakidas DAL 5.2 2.0 0.8
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.4 3.8 1.1
21 Norchad Omier LAC 4.2 2.8 0.7
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.6 0.8
23 Cam Christie LAC 3.5 2.7 0.8
24 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.9 1.5 1.2
25 Sean Pedulla LAC 2.9 1.1 0.7
26 Tyler Smith DAL 2.6 1.8 0.4
27 AJ Johnson DAL 2.1 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.