NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
123–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34312830123
LAL2720152587

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 25 1 8
Isaiah Joe 18 18 2 0
Chet Holmgren S 22 15 10 0
Jared McCain 16 15 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 20 10 2 0
Ajay Mitchell S 21 9 3 3
Branden Carlson 7 8 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 8 1 2
Alex Caruso 10 6 1 2
Cason Wallace 23 5 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura S 26 15 5 1
Drew Timme S 27 11 3 2
Nick Smith Jr. 12 11 0 2
Luke Kennard S 23 10 2 9
Adou Thiero 21 10 4 2
Kobe Bufkin 18 9 3 4
Dalton Knecht 19 5 4 0
Bronny James 23 4 2 2
Deandre Ayton S 23 3 3 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 5 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 16-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton LAL
15%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
15%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
6 Luke Kennard LAL
11%
7 Jake LaRavia LAL
10%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC
0%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
16%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 4.4 6.1
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 7.3 1.6
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.2 3.4 3.5
4 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.2 7.2 1.0
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL 10.2 5.5 1.1
6 Cason Wallace OKC 9.3 3.1 1.8
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.0 3.1 0.8
8 Luke Kennard LAL 8.6 3.4 2.1
9 Jared McCain OKC 8.3 2.2 1.1
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.1 1.3
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.4 2.7 1.3
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.0 3.8 1.3
13 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.7 8.5 3.8
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.6 5.4 1.7
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.1 2.0 1.1
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.0 2.9 1.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.1 2.2 1.0
18 Nikola Topic OKC 5.1 1.9 2.9
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.3 3.2 1.1
20 Branden Carlson OKC 3.9 2.4 0.7
21 Bronny James LAL 3.5 1.2 0.8
22 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.2 1.0 0.8
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.0 2.4 0.7
24 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.8 1.1 0.6
25 Drew Timme LAL 2.4 0.7 0.5
26 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.2 1.5 0.8
27 Chris Manon LAL 2.1 1.4 0.4
28 Adou Thiero LAL 1.5 1.1 0.3
29 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.