NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC26272824105
GS25411925110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Killian Hayes 32 18 4 4
Maxime Raynaud S 26 17 7 1
Doug McDermott 29 16 4 2
Precious Achiuwa S 34 13 6 4
Nique Clifford S 36 12 6 2
Daeqwon Plowden S 26 11 1 1
Dylan Cardwell 26 8 9 2
Devin Carter S 21 6 3 5
Malik Monk 11 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 29 21 4 5
Brandin Podziemski S 30 20 1 3
Stephen Curry 25 17 5 2
Pat Spencer S 41 14 2 3
Charles Bassey 27 14 12 0
Gary Payton II 25 12 4 3
Seth Curry 16 9 0 1
Malevy Leons S 21 2 5 3
Draymond Green S 27 1 6 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
12%
2 Brandin Podziemski GS
11%
3 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS
10%
5 Gui Santos GS
9%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
7 Devin Carter SAC
9%
8 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
10 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.4 3.3 6.1
2 Gui Santos GS 20.1 4.7 4.5
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 19.8 5.5 4.8
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC 18.6 8.4 2.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis GS 18.5 5.6 3.0
6 Zach LaVine SAC 16.7 2.7 2.7
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC 16.1 9.2 1.7
8 Malik Monk SAC 15.4 2.6 5.3
9 Devin Carter SAC 15.3 4.5 3.8
10 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 15.1 2.9 1.9
11 Gary Payton II GS 15.0 5.9 2.8
12 Nique Clifford SAC 14.7 4.7 5.0
13 Keegan Murray SAC 12.9 4.4 2.0
14 De'Anthony Melton GS 12.0 3.7 3.9
15 Draymond Green GS 11.5 5.2 6.6
16 Pat Spencer GS 10.4 3.1 3.8
17 Doug McDermott SAC 7.4 2.1 1.5
18 Killian Hayes SAC 6.8 2.8 4.0
19 Will Richard GS 6.7 2.3 1.5
20 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.7 6.6 1.8
21 Seth Curry GS 5.8 1.5 1.1
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.8 3.2 0.6
23 Charles Bassey GS 3.8 4.4 0.8
24 Omer Yurtseven GS 3.5 2.8 0.8
25 Malevy Leons GS 3.2 1.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.