NBA games

UTAH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
137156
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH34352741137
NO24375045156

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NO
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kennedy Chandler 43 31 7 8
Bez Mbeng S 48 26 3 3
Cody Williams S 34 19 4 5
Brice Sensabaugh S 26 18 3 4
John Konchar 38 12 10 10
Oscar Tshiebwe S 21 12 7 0
Blake Hinson 11 10 1 3
Kyle Filipowski S 18 9 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears S 38 40 5 6
Jordan Poole S 32 34 2 4
Jordan Hawkins 23 25 6 4
Micah Peavy S 36 20 4 2
Derik Queen S 37 17 12 7
Josh Oduro 26 9 5 1
Kevon Looney S 29 7 12 6
Trey Alexander 11 2 2 2
Hunter Dickinson 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cody Williams UTAH
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
13%
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH
12%
4 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
12%
5 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
6 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH
9%
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
8 Elijah Harkless UTAH
8%
9 Saddiq Bey NO
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
39%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 24.8 4.6 4.1
2 Saddiq Bey NO 21.1 4.7 3.4
3 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 20.0 8.5 4.2
4 Zion Williamson NO 19.6 6.3 3.5
5 Cody Williams UTAH 18.0 4.5 4.7
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.6 3.2 6.4
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.3 3.6 4.7
8 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 12.4 3.0 5.6
9 Elijah Harkless UTAH 11.4 3.0 3.8
10 John Konchar UTAH 10.4 6.6 2.9
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.3 3.0 2.9
12 Derik Queen NO 10.1 5.7 2.7
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.9 2.6 1.9
14 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 8.7 6.8 1.5
15 Blake Hinson UTAH 7.5 2.2 0.9
16 Jordan Poole NO 6.8 2.4 2.4
17 Bez Mbeng UTAH 6.8 3.1 2.9
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.9 1.6 0.9
19 Hunter Dickinson NO 4.9 3.1 1.0
20 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.8 6.3 0.9
21 Kevin Love UTAH 4.5 4.8 1.4
22 Trey Alexander NO 4.0 1.7 1.0
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.6 5.9 0.9
24 Micah Peavy NO 3.4 2.0 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.