NBA games

MIN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
124–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN35283922124
IND27262427104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home IND
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 24 5 1
Julius Randle S 28 19 2 4
Bones Hyland 21 19 4 7
Naz Reid 24 17 2 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 11 6 4
Jaylen Clark 18 11 1 0
Mike Conley S 21 8 2 3
Kyle Anderson 16 6 3 4
Rudy Gobert S 33 5 12 3
Joan Beringer 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ethan Thompson S 30 17 4 1
Jalen Slawson 34 14 2 0
Obi Toppin 22 14 3 2
Jay Huff S 26 12 4 3
Jarace Walker S 28 11 6 5
Micah Potter 22 11 3 2
Quenton Jackson S 25 9 1 4
Kam Jones 23 9 2 4
Taelon Peter 13 5 4 2
Kobe Brown S 16 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jay Huff makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
11%
3 Jarace Walker IND
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
6 Micah Potter IND
7%
7 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
8 Jalen Slawson IND
7%
9 Kobe Brown IND
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 24.4 6.1 5.5
2 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.9 7.0 5.6
3 Bones Hyland MIN 16.0 3.3 3.6
4 Jarace Walker IND 14.2 5.3 3.2
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 12.1 1.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 6.2 1.8
7 Obi Toppin IND 12.3 4.1 3.2
8 Kobe Brown IND 12.1 4.5 3.1
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.1 2.8 2.7
10 Quenton Jackson IND 9.4 3.0 3.6
11 Jay Huff IND 9.2 3.9 1.9
12 Ethan Thompson IND 9.0 2.6 1.7
13 Taelon Peter IND 8.5 2.5 1.6
14 Micah Potter IND 8.1 3.6 1.3
15 Jalen Slawson IND 7.8 4.3 2.4
16 Ben Sheppard IND 7.2 2.6 1.2
17 Kam Jones IND 6.6 2.1 4.5
18 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.7 4.0 3.3
19 Mike Conley MIN 5.1 2.0 2.5
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.6 1.6 0.8
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.0 1.7 0.9
22 Enrique Freeman MIN 3.8 2.2 0.6
23 Zyon Pullin MIN 3.2 1.3 1.7
24 Joan Beringer MIN 3.2 2.4 0.6
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.9 1.2 0.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.