NBA games

MIA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
95–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2724251995
TOR32323027121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home TOR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 33 24 5 1
Norman Powell 24 14 3 0
Tyler Herro S 30 14 5 6
Davion Mitchell S 23 9 1 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 8 6 3
Bam Adebayo S 37 7 9 3
Keshad Johnson 3 7 1 0
Pelle Larsson S 26 7 3 1
Kel'el Ware 17 5 8 2
Kasparas Jakucionis 13 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 30 25 8 5
Brandon Ingram S 29 23 6 3
Jakob Poeltl S 26 17 6 3
RJ Barrett S 31 16 8 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 11 5 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 27 9 7 3
Collin Murray-Boyles 20 6 8 1
Jamison Battle 3 4 0 1
Gradey Dick 3 4 1 0
Immanuel Quickley S 18 3 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
7 Norman Powell MIA
8%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.0 4.9 4.5
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.7 5.1 3.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.5 10.2 4.0
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.2 4.8 4.7
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.4 7.1 10.1
6 Norman Powell MIA 17.1 3.5 2.7
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.9 4.2 4.5
8 Pelle Larsson MIA 16.2 4.6 3.6
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR 13.4 3.1 5.8
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.1 6.9 2.2
11 Andrew Wiggins MIA 12.5 4.6 2.1
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.5 5.4 2.3
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 11.5 3.8 2.2
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.3 3.2 5.1
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.6 5.6 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 9.2 2.0 7.2
17 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.7 6.7 1.3
18 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.4 2.6 2.3
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.2 1.9 1.2
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.5 1.8 1.2
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.9 1.8 0.8
22 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 2.0 0.9
23 Dru Smith MIA 4.2 2.1 1.8
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.9 1.7 0.5
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.4 2.9 1.0
26 Myron Gardner MIA 3.1 2.3 0.7
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.9 2.2 0.8
28 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 0.9 0.6
29 Trevor Keels MIA 2.1 0.6 0.5
30 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.1 0.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.