NBA games

MIL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
90–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2914192890
BKN3019212696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BKN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
AJ Green S 39 20 6 1
Taurean Prince S 37 16 11 4
Cormac Ryan 34 14 5 2
Jericho Sims S 37 12 8 6
Ousmane Dieng S 32 10 7 3
Pete Nance S 26 8 2 6
Gary Harris 21 7 3 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 15 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
E.J. Liddell S 21 21 4 1
Ben Saraf S 36 19 5 2
Drake Powell S 40 11 4 1
Malachi Smith S 37 11 5 4
Tyson Etienne 29 9 5 3
Trevon Scott S 40 8 5 2
Jalen Wilson 19 7 1 2
Nolan Traore 9 5 1 2
Chaney Johnson 8 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pete Nance · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Pete Nance makes 22-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
20%
2 Ousmane Dieng MIL
14%
3 Nolan Traore BKN
13%
4 Chaney Johnson BKN
12%
5 E.J. Liddell BKN
11%
6 Jalen Wilson BKN
10%
7 Drake Powell BKN
10%
8 AJ Green MIL
9%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
0%
10 Pete Nance MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 19.0 4.7 6.4
2 Ousmane Dieng MIL 16.2 5.1 4.7
3 Josh Minott BKN 14.9 3.9 1.8
4 Nolan Traore BKN 13.4 3.1 5.7
5 Ziaire Williams BKN 12.4 2.6 2.0
6 Ben Saraf BKN 12.0 3.3 4.4
7 AJ Green MIL 10.9 3.5 2.6
8 Taurean Prince MIL 10.4 3.3 2.4
9 Pete Nance MIL 9.7 4.7 1.8
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.5 3.0 1.6
11 Chaney Johnson BKN 9.4 4.1 2.8
12 Tyson Etienne BKN 9.1 1.8 2.2
13 Drake Powell BKN 9.1 2.6 1.7
14 Ochai Agbaji BKN 8.2 2.6 1.2
15 Jericho Sims MIL 8.0 7.3 2.3
16 Cormac Ryan MIL 8.0 1.7 1.3
17 Malachi Smith BKN 7.2 2.4 2.2
18 E.J. Liddell BKN 5.7 3.3 1.4
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.2 2.3 1.2
20 Gary Harris MIL 3.0 1.3 0.9
21 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.4 1.9 0.7
22 Alex Antetokounmpo MIL 2.4 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.