NBA games

CHA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
102–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31302615102
BOS20353523113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BOS
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 37 36 5 6
Brandon Miller S 34 20 0 2
Miles Bridges S 32 13 12 4
Kon Knueppel S 35 13 5 5
Grant Williams 26 9 2 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 4 3 0
Josh Green 7 3 2 0
Sion James 19 2 5 2
Moussa Diabate S 33 2 5 5
Pat Connaughton 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 43 35 9 3
Jayson Tatum S 39 23 5 4
Payton Pritchard 30 12 4 3
Derrick White S 37 12 2 3
Neemias Queta S 25 12 5 3
Jordan Walsh 18 9 6 0
Sam Hauser S 16 5 5 3
Baylor Scheierman 9 3 2 1
Nikola Vucevic 23 2 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes layup (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
16%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
72%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
10%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.4 5.9 6.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.9 9.8 5.8
3 Brandon Miller CHA 18.9 4.6 3.7
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.4 3.5 3.9
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.2 4.4 6.8
6 Miles Bridges CHA 15.7 4.9 2.3
7 Kon Knueppel CHA 15.6 5.2 3.4
8 Derrick White BOS 12.5 4.4 4.0
9 Neemias Queta BOS 11.6 7.9 2.2
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.6 8.9 1.9
11 Nikola Vucevic BOS 8.5 5.5 1.4
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.3 3.0 1.1
13 Luka Garza BOS 7.6 3.9 0.7
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 6.4 3.3 2.0
15 Sion James CHA 6.1 2.9 2.1
16 Grant Williams CHA 6.0 3.4 1.2
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.8 4.1 0.9
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.6 2.9 0.8
19 Josh Green CHA 4.0 1.2 0.7
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.5 1.2 0.6
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.0 2.2 0.6
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.6 1.4 0.5
23 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.1 1.5 0.7
24 Tre Mann CHA 2.1 0.6 0.4
25 Amari Williams BOS 1.0 1.4 0.3
26 John Tonje BOS 0.9 0.6 0.2
27 Max Shulga BOS 0.9 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.