NBA games

CHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
129–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI38283429129
WSH1819263598

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home WSH
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rob Dillingham 27 26 7 2
Patrick Williams 32 20 7 6
Tre Jones S 27 20 2 9
Collin Sexton S 30 15 9 7
Leonard Miller S 25 13 8 1
Isaac Okoro S 16 11 4 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 27 9 6 1
Lachlan Olbrich 21 7 7 2
Mac McClung 18 5 0 3
Yuki Kawamura 16 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 19 3 1
Sharife Cooper 27 17 1 4
Julian Reese S 36 17 11 4
Bub Carrington S 32 14 4 7
Jamir Watkins 22 13 7 1
Anthony Gill S 16 8 1 0
Justin Champagnie 29 5 8 2
Leaky Black S 24 3 5 0
Will Riley 31 2 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
14%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
3 Leonard Miller CHI
8%
4 Julian Reese WSH
8%
5 Anthony Gill WSH
8%
6 Collin Sexton CHI
8%
7 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Jamir Watkins WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Will Riley WSH 20.7 4.0 4.0
2 Tre Jones CHI 20.1 4.8 6.0
3 Collin Sexton CHI 19.0 3.7 3.3
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 17.3 5.2 2.9
5 Anfernee Simons CHI 16.5 3.2 2.8
6 Bub Carrington WSH 15.0 3.0 5.4
7 Jaden Hardy WSH 14.7 2.4 2.4
8 Leonard Miller CHI 14.4 6.3 1.8
9 Julian Reese WSH 13.5 12.7 2.4
10 Anthony Gill WSH 13.1 5.2 2.6
11 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 11.8 4.0 1.4
12 Tre Johnson WSH 11.7 3.2 2.3
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.3 5.2 1.7
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.7 3.0 1.9
15 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.6 4.8 1.4
16 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.5 3.1 3.9
17 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.5 5.0 2.1
18 Rob Dillingham CHI 10.2 2.8 2.2
19 Leaky Black WSH 9.5 4.9 2.0
20 Zach Collins CHI 9.3 5.6 1.8
21 Patrick Williams CHI 6.5 3.1 1.4
22 Lachlan Olbrich CHI 6.2 5.6 1.7
23 Mac McClung CHI 5.2 1.9 0.7
24 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.5 1.6 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.