NBA games

POR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
132–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR353729247132
DEN3127293812137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DEN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Toumani Camara S 35 30 5 0
Deni Avdija S 40 26 4 7
Jrue Holiday S 39 19 6 11
Donovan Clingan S 30 18 12 0
Scoot Henderson S 36 18 3 3
Matisse Thybulle 33 14 1 3
Robert Williams III 23 6 6 3
Kris Murray 22 1 1 2
Sidy Cissoko 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 35 14 13
Aaron Gordon S 31 23 9 5
Jamal Murray S 38 20 1 7
Cameron Johnson S 37 17 6 7
Jonas Valanciunas 10 14 3 1
Julian Strawther 19 11 0 0
Christian Braun S 40 8 6 1
Bruce Brown 24 6 5 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 24-foot running jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
2 Christian Braun DEN
11%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
10 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
21%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.4 12.6 8.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.6 4.8 7.1
3 Deni Avdija POR 24.6 7.7 6.8
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.9 4.3 3.4
5 Jrue Holiday POR 17.6 4.4 6.0
6 Toumani Camara POR 16.7 4.5 2.1
7 Christian Braun DEN 16.1 4.6 2.4
8 Scoot Henderson POR 15.6 3.0 4.0
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.0 5.3 2.4
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.6 4.0 2.3
11 Donovan Clingan POR 13.2 10.4 1.8
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.2 2.8 1.5
13 Bruce Brown DEN 8.7 3.0 1.5
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.2 3.0 1.4
15 Kris Murray POR 6.8 3.1 2.3
16 Robert Williams III POR 5.8 7.5 0.8
17 Vit Krejci POR 5.2 2.7 1.5
18 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.5 2.9 0.7
19 KJ Simpson DEN 4.5 1.5 1.9
20 Julian Strawther DEN 4.3 1.5 0.9
21 Blake Wesley POR 3.6 1.0 1.1
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.3 2.0 1.8
23 Jayson Kent POR 3.2 1.3 0.4
24 Chris Youngblood POR 2.9 0.9 0.5
25 Tyus Jones DEN 2.8 1.0 0.9
26 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.6 0.7 0.3
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.4 0.8 0.4
28 Yang Hansen POR 2.3 1.3 0.3
29 Curtis Jones DEN 1.9 0.7 0.5
30 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.5 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.