NBA games

PHI @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28273017102
SA29333023115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home SA
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 39 34 12 1
Paul George S 38 16 4 4
Tyrese Maxey S 40 15 3 8
VJ Edgecombe S 41 14 8 3
Dominick Barlow 16 6 8 0
Andre Drummond 9 5 3 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 29 5 8 0
Quentin Grimes 23 5 2 0
Justin Edwards 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 31 19 10 13
Victor Wembanyama S 16 17 5 1
Dylan Harper 28 17 3 4
Keldon Johnson 25 13 9 1
De'Aaron Fox S 27 13 0 4
Luke Kornet 22 10 3 1
Devin Vassell S 30 9 4 4
Julian Champagnie S 27 7 9 2
Carter Bryant 13 5 2 1
Lindy Waters III 5 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
8 Paul George PHI
7%
9 Devin Vassell SA
6%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
51%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.1 12.3 4.5
2 Joel Embiid PHI 26.9 7.7 5.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.2 4.3 6.4
4 Paul George PHI 23.0 5.7 4.5
5 Stephon Castle SA 21.7 6.1 9.2
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.0 5.0 5.5
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.3 4.5 5.7
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 15.7 4.1 3.0
9 Dylan Harper SA 15.6 4.2 4.6
10 Keldon Johnson SA 15.0 3.8 2.1
11 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.1 5.7 2.1
12 Devin Vassell SA 13.2 4.4 2.9
13 Julian Champagnie SA 12.2 4.7 2.1
14 Harrison Barnes SA 8.5 2.5 1.8
15 Justin Edwards PHI 8.1 1.5 1.4
16 Trendon Watford PHI 7.6 3.3 2.5
17 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 6.0 2.0
18 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 6.0 2.3 1.2
19 Adem Bona PHI 5.9 4.3 0.9
20 Luke Kornet SA 5.8 5.8 1.5
21 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.8 4.9 1.6
22 Carter Bryant SA 4.4 3.0 1.1
23 Jabari Walker PHI 4.3 2.1 0.9
24 Dalen Terry PHI 3.9 1.4 1.4
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.7 1.1
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.1 1.3
27 Lindy Waters III SA 2.9 0.8 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.3 1.5 0.6
29 Mason Plumlee SA 2.2 2.3 0.8
30 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.3 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.