NBA games

CLE @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
142–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE24443341142
MEM36282636126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MEM
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 26 24 6 4
Dennis Schroder S 29 22 5 11
Sam Merrill S 28 21 2 2
Keon Ellis S 27 19 3 8
Jarrett Allen S 25 13 9 1
Craig Porter Jr. 26 11 8 6
Larry Nance Jr. 21 10 3 1
Tyrese Proctor 22 10 2 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 22 10 9 2
Tristan Enaruna 11 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 19 24 3 0
Dariq Whitehead 31 20 3 1
Adama Bal 37 20 6 0
Lucas Williamson S 40 17 5 4
Cedric Coward S 18 12 5 3
GG Jackson S 18 11 5 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 25 10 1 11
Cam Spencer S 21 9 1 9
Toby Okani 32 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
11%
4 GG Jackson MEM
11%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
6 Taylor Hendricks MEM
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Keon Ellis CLE
7%
9 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM
7%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
16%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Evan Mobley CLE 22.0 12.3 4.1
2 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.6 10.5 2.1
3 GG Jackson MEM 19.2 4.7 2.1
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 14.9 4.5 1.6
5 Cedric Coward MEM 14.0 4.5 2.8
6 Sam Merrill CLE 13.2 4.0 3.3
7 Keon Ellis CLE 10.9 3.2 1.7
8 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.9 2.8 4.5
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.8 2.6 1.4
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.0 4.0 1.4
11 Cam Spencer MEM 9.6 2.0 4.8
12 Adama Bal MEM 8.2 2.4 1.9
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.9 2.6 3.9
14 Dariq Whitehead MEM 6.9 2.1 1.5
15 Lucas Williamson MEM 6.7 2.6 2.3
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.3 3.3 3.6
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.4 1.7 1.2
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.9 2.3 0.8
19 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.7 2.7 1.0
20 Taj Gibson MEM 4.0 2.3 0.8
21 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.0 1.0 0.5
22 Riley Minix CLE 2.8 1.2 0.8
23 Olivier Sarr CLE 2.7 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.