NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32212827108
ATL31262226105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 30 3 13
OG Anunoby S 37 22 5 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 21 12 6
Mikal Bridges S 32 15 5 2
Mitchell Robinson 20 8 12 1
Miles McBride 20 6 2 2
Jordan Clarkson 9 3 2 0
Josh Hart S 31 2 5 3
Landry Shamet 21 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 36 2 3
Jalen Johnson S 41 21 11 5
CJ McCollum S 35 17 3 6
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 12 8 1
Dyson Daniels S 38 11 12 3
Jonathan Kuminga 22 5 5 2
Zaccharie Risacher 7 3 2 0
Tony Bradley 4 0 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye 8 0 1 0
Gabe Vincent 10 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
4 CJ McCollum ATL
10%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
22%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.1 3.4 8.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.0 9.7 8.6
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.9 3.8 4.4
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.8 10.7 3.9
5 CJ McCollum ATL 20.6 3.1 5.6
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 4.8 2.2
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.1 7.1 4.4
8 Josh Hart NY 14.2 7.5 4.0
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.0 6.3 3.3
10 Mikal Bridges NY 12.9 3.0 2.9
11 Miles McBride NY 10.1 2.8 3.2
12 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 8.4 4.0 1.7
13 Landry Shamet NY 8.3 2.4 1.3
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 7.7 2.4 1.4
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.6 3.2 0.8
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.5 8.8 0.9
17 Jose Alvarado NY 6.8 1.7 3.7
18 Corey Kispert ATL 6.3 2.0 1.2
19 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.8 1.5 1.5
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.8 3.2 1.1
21 Asa Newell ATL 4.6 2.1 0.8
22 Buddy Hield ATL 4.5 1.6 1.4
23 Tony Bradley ATL 4.1 3.3 0.7
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.1 1.3 0.9
25 Tyler Kolek NY 4.0 1.3 2.2
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.2 1.3 0.6
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.0 1.0 0.8
28 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.9 2.2 0.6
29 Christian Koloko ATL 2.7 2.2 0.7
30 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.