NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
117–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU26293725117
GS31222934116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 31 8 8
Alperen Sengun S 37 24 6 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 23 9 1
Amen Thompson S 39 18 3 7
Reed Sheppard S 26 11 0 2
Aaron Holiday 22 6 2 4
Tari Eason 19 2 4 0
Josh Okogie 12 2 2 0
Clint Capela 4 0 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 11 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry 26 29 2 4
Brandin Podziemski S 37 18 2 3
Gui Santos S 32 15 4 1
Gary Payton II 25 14 3 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 9 8 3
Draymond Green S 34 7 6 12
Pat Spencer 12 7 1 3
De'Anthony Melton S 23 6 1 4
Seth Curry 13 6 0 0
Charles Bassey 10 5 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes 4-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gui Santos GS
11%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Stephen Curry GS
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS
10%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
7 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Kevin Durant HOU
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
20%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.4 4.9 6.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.6 8.1 6.8
3 Stephen Curry GS 23.2 3.3 5.6
4 Gui Santos GS 19.5 5.0 4.5
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.3 7.9 5.2
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 18.2 5.1 2.6
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.3 5.5 4.2
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.3 6.7 2.9
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 16.2 4.1 5.4
10 Gary Payton II GS 13.9 5.8 2.5
11 De'Anthony Melton GS 12.6 4.2 3.1
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.6 5.8 1.4
13 Draymond Green GS 10.5 5.4 5.5
14 Pat Spencer GS 9.9 3.1 3.7
15 Quinten Post GS 7.1 3.8 1.2
16 Will Richard GS 6.2 2.3 1.3
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.5 1.6
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.8 2.4 1.7
19 Seth Curry GS 4.3 1.2 0.8
20 JD Davison HOU 3.6 1.3 1.0
21 Clint Capela HOU 3.6 4.6 1.0
22 Charles Bassey GS 3.3 3.7 0.5
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 1.5 0.6
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.0 1.3 0.7
25 Josh Okogie HOU 2.9 1.4 0.9
26 Malevy Leons GS 2.9 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.