NBA games

LAC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
138–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC42293631138
SAC32272030109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SAC
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 26 6 3
John Collins 24 25 4 2
Kobe Sanders 20 17 0 1
Darius Garland S 24 17 4 6
Kris Dunn S 27 13 6 4
Jordan Miller 23 13 2 6
Brook Lopez S 19 9 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 6 3 1
Bennedict Mathurin 27 5 6 5
Norchad Omier 5 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Carter S 36 21 5 5
Nique Clifford S 38 18 5 5
Dylan Cardwell 27 15 8 2
Daeqwon Plowden 36 15 2 3
Maxime Raynaud S 33 11 15 2
DeMar DeRozan S 10 9 0 0
Precious Achiuwa S 20 8 5 0
Malik Monk 14 7 0 1
Doug McDermott 11 3 0 3
Killian Hayes 14 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Precious Achiuwa · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Precious Achiuwa makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
14%
2 Precious Achiuwa SAC
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
5 Darius Garland LAC
8%
6 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
9 John Collins LAC
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
29%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.1 6.2 3.7
2 Darius Garland LAC 23.6 3.0 7.5
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.3 3.3 6.2
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 21.1 5.2 2.7
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC 18.0 8.2 2.2
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 17.0 10.1 1.8
7 Malik Monk SAC 16.1 2.7 5.7
8 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 14.9 3.2 1.9
9 Nique Clifford SAC 14.0 4.6 4.6
10 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 4.4 1.9
11 John Collins LAC 12.5 5.5 1.7
12 Devin Carter SAC 12.3 4.1 3.0
13 Brook Lopez LAC 11.9 5.9 2.2
14 Jordan Miller LAC 11.5 3.6 2.3
15 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 4.2 1.9
16 DaQuan Jeffries SAC 8.4 1.9 0.7
17 Doug McDermott SAC 7.5 2.2 1.4
18 Kris Dunn LAC 7.4 2.8 3.2
19 Killian Hayes SAC 6.7 2.9 3.7
20 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.0 1.6 1.6
21 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.9 6.6 1.7
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 2.6 1.0
23 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.5 1.4 1.4
24 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.6 3.2 0.6
25 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.0 1.0 1.2
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.9 1.8 0.9
27 Norchad Omier LAC 2.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.