NBA games

LAL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
128–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30313631128
DAL41264027134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DAL
93% 7%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 39 30 9 15
Jaxson Hayes 27 23 4 2
Rui Hachimura S 39 21 7 1
Luke Kennard S 41 15 16 11
Jake LaRavia S 36 14 5 1
Deandre Ayton S 19 13 4 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 5 1 1
Bronny James 9 5 0 1
Maxi Kleber 13 2 1 3
Nick Smith Jr. 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 39 45 8 9
P.J. Washington S 30 15 6 0
Naji Marshall S 32 13 6 7
Brandon Williams 25 13 2 5
Klay Thompson 18 11 0 2
Marvin Bagley III 21 9 4 0
Khris Middleton 18 8 2 0
Max Christie S 25 8 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 20 7 7 0
John Poulakidas 7 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cooper Flagg · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Cooper Flagg makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Max Christie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
16%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
13%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
13%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
7 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
8%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
27%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.8 6.5 6.3
2 LeBron James LAL 20.5 8.0 7.0
3 Naji Marshall DAL 19.8 4.9 4.9
4 Daniel Gafford DAL 15.3 8.5 1.7
5 P.J. Washington DAL 14.1 7.1 1.5
6 Brandon Williams DAL 13.2 3.2 4.8
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.6 8.3 1.2
8 Klay Thompson DAL 10.2 1.7 1.7
9 Max Christie DAL 10.0 3.0 1.7
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.2 3.0 1.0
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.7 5.6 1.0
12 Marvin Bagley III DAL 8.2 5.1 1.3
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.4 2.7 5.0
14 Luke Kennard LAL 6.9 2.6 1.7
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.7 4.1 1.4
16 Khris Middleton DAL 6.6 3.1 1.7
17 John Poulakidas DAL 5.5 2.0 0.9
18 Dwight Powell DAL 4.5 3.6 1.1
19 Bronny James LAL 4.3 1.7 1.2
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.1 3.5 1.1
21 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.6 1.3 1.0
22 Tyler Smith DAL 3.6 2.2 0.7
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.4 2.7 0.7
24 AJ Johnson DAL 3.1 1.4 0.9
25 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.4 1.1 0.5
26 Adou Thiero LAL 2.2 1.9 0.5
27 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.1 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.