NBA games

ORL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
112–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29232931112
NO28322820108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NO
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 27 6 4
Paolo Banchero S 38 23 16 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 13 5 1
Jevon Carter 21 11 5 1
Jalen Suggs S 34 11 4 8
Franz Wagner S 20 11 5 2
Jamal Cain 28 8 5 2
Goga Bitadze 16 6 8 1
Tristan da Silva 18 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 39 32 6 1
Jeremiah Fears S 37 19 3 7
Yves Missi S 40 18 13 3
Zion Williamson S 28 17 7 2
Jordan Hawkins 26 7 3 2
Herbert Jones S 9 5 3 1
Trey Alexander 11 5 2 0
Micah Peavy 28 3 5 1
Derik Queen 18 2 4 1
Hunter Dickinson 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes running layup (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
20%
2 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
12%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
7 Yves Missi NO
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
12%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.8 6.8 6.4
2 Desmond Bane ORL 20.3 4.6 4.3
3 Saddiq Bey NO 20.3 4.5 3.3
4 Zion Williamson NO 20.0 5.5 3.4
5 Franz Wagner ORL 18.3 4.4 3.3
6 Jeremiah Fears NO 16.7 3.5 4.1
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.7 6.8 2.0
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.8 4.8 6.3
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.2 3.6 2.2
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.7 3.0 3.1
11 Derik Queen NO 10.3 5.6 2.6
12 Jamal Cain ORL 9.6 3.3 1.5
13 Jevon Carter ORL 7.6 2.2 1.9
14 Jordan Poole NO 6.9 2.2 2.3
15 Yves Missi NO 6.7 6.6 1.8
16 Hunter Dickinson NO 5.4 3.0 1.2
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.3 3.8 1.7
18 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.6 6.0 0.9
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.3 1.4 0.7
20 Moritz Wagner ORL 3.8 2.2 0.6
21 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.6 1.0
22 Noah Penda ORL 3.7 2.1 1.4
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.5 5.5 0.8
24 Trey Alexander NO 3.4 1.4 0.8
25 Micah Peavy NO 2.8 1.4 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.