NBA games

CHA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
122–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29263433122
MIN21391929108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 31 35 3 8
Miles Bridges S 34 25 8 7
Coby White 20 17 0 1
Kon Knueppel S 31 11 4 3
Moussa Diabate S 24 8 9 4
Grant Williams 19 8 4 1
Brandon Miller S 34 7 6 3
Sion James 22 5 5 4
Xavier Tillman 2 4 0 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 16 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 32 26 8 4
Bones Hyland 29 18 6 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 34 12 4 2
Rudy Gobert S 30 12 10 2
Mike Conley S 22 11 2 0
Jaylen Clark 11 9 0 2
Naz Reid 25 6 7 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 27 6 1 3
Joan Beringer 3 4 0 0
Julian Phillips 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 23.7 6.0 5.1
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.9 4.9 7.5
3 Brandon Miller CHA 19.8 4.6 3.6
4 Coby White CHA 19.6 4.0 3.8
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 18.5 6.6 5.0
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 16.7 5.5 3.4
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.2 5.5 2.1
8 Bones Hyland MIN 12.4 2.6 2.8
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.2 5.6 1.7
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 11.0 1.3
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.7 3.1 2.3
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.6 9.1 1.9
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.6 4.4 1.0
14 Sion James CHA 6.3 2.9 2.0
15 Grant Williams CHA 5.8 3.4 1.3
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.1 3.5 2.8
17 Josh Green CHA 4.2 1.5 0.8
18 Mike Conley MIN 4.1 1.6 2.8
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.7 1.5 1.0
20 Enrique Freeman MIN 3.4 2.0 0.5
21 Tre Mann CHA 3.2 1.1 0.7
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.9 1.1 0.4
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.8 1.4 0.6
24 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.6 1.9 0.8
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.1 0.6 0.3
26 Joan Beringer MIN 1.9 1.4 0.2
27 Zyon Pullin MIN 1.6 0.5 1.4
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.1 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.