NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND32263317108
CLE31243527117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Micah Potter S 30 21 12 4
Obi Toppin 23 21 8 4
Jalen Slawson S 33 19 6 2
Quenton Jackson S 29 15 5 4
Kobe Brown S 40 11 7 5
Taelon Peter 18 8 1 1
Jay Huff 18 6 3 2
Ethan Thompson S 30 5 1 1
Kam Jones 19 2 0 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 38 6 6
James Harden S 34 28 4 7
Thomas Bryant S 26 14 10 2
Keon Ellis S 33 13 5 0
Dennis Schroder 20 6 2 3
Larry Nance Jr. 22 6 3 1
Craig Porter Jr. 23 5 4 1
Max Strus S 31 4 7 5
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 13 3 4 0
Tyrese Proctor 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Micah Potter · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
18%
2 Jarace Walker IND
16%
3 James Harden CLE
14%
4 Ben Sheppard IND
11%
5 Kobe Brown IND
10%
6 Quenton Jackson IND
10%
7 Jay Huff IND
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
10%
9 Taelon Peter IND
0%
10 Jalen Slawson IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.1 4.6 5.9
2 James Harden CLE 22.8 4.9 8.7
3 Jarace Walker IND 15.0 5.5 3.2
4 Max Strus CLE 12.6 5.7 2.2
5 Kobe Brown IND 11.3 4.3 2.7
6 Obi Toppin IND 10.7 3.7 2.8
7 Jay Huff IND 9.7 3.8 1.9
8 Keon Ellis CLE 9.5 3.1 1.8
9 Taelon Peter IND 9.4 2.7 1.7
10 Quenton Jackson IND 8.1 2.4 3.5
11 Ethan Thompson IND 8.1 2.4 1.6
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.8 2.8 1.5
13 Micah Potter IND 7.4 3.0 1.2
14 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.2 2.5 4.0
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.1 4.2 1.0
16 Kam Jones IND 6.7 2.2 4.9
17 Jalen Slawson IND 5.5 3.8 2.0
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.5 2.5 3.2
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.9 1.2 0.9
20 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.2 2.2 0.8
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.0 1.7 0.5
22 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.5 1.0 0.4
23 Riley Minix CLE 2.5 1.4 0.8
24 Olivier Sarr CLE 2.3 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.