NBA games

MEM @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
115–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM25313128115
MIL34283039131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rayan Rupert S 39 33 10 10
Walter Clayton Jr. S 25 20 3 4
Dariq Whitehead 39 16 3 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 14 13 3 2
Taylor Hendricks S 12 11 4 0
Toby Okani S 41 9 3 0
Adama Bal 25 8 2 2
Lucas Williamson 36 5 4 4
Taj Gibson 7 0 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 32 24 4 3
Cormac Ryan 29 21 4 3
Taurean Prince 24 19 3 3
Myles Turner S 22 19 11 0
Ousmane Dieng S 31 17 9 6
Jericho Sims 26 12 4 3
AJ Green S 27 6 1 1
Pete Nance 23 5 4 4
Kyle Kuzma S 22 4 4 6
Alex Antetokounmpo 1 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rayan Rupert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Rayan Rupert makes running layup (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 GG Jackson MEM
11%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
3 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
10%
4 Ousmane Dieng MIL
9%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
7 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
8 Myles Turner MIL
7%
9 Rayan Rupert MEM
7%
10 Pete Nance MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ryan Rollins MIL 23.8 4.6 7.4
2 GG Jackson MEM 19.6 4.8 2.2
3 Ousmane Dieng MIL 17.4 5.0 4.9
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.8 4.2 3.6
5 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 15.3 4.3 1.7
6 Cedric Coward MEM 14.4 4.7 2.9
7 AJ Green MIL 12.1 3.8 2.9
8 Taurean Prince MIL 11.5 3.5 2.5
9 Rayan Rupert MEM 11.4 4.8 1.6
10 Pete Nance MIL 11.2 5.1 2.0
11 Myles Turner MIL 11.0 5.0 1.7
12 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.6 4.7 1.4
13 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.6 2.8 4.8
14 Cam Spencer MEM 10.2 2.2 5.1
15 Cormac Ryan MIL 8.4 1.8 1.2
16 Jericho Sims MIL 8.3 7.7 2.2
17 Adama Bal MEM 8.1 2.5 1.9
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.7 2.7 1.5
19 Dariq Whitehead MEM 4.8 1.9 1.2
20 Gary Harris MIL 4.4 1.7 1.2
21 Taj Gibson MEM 3.5 1.5 0.5
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.4 2.3 0.9
23 Alex Antetokounmpo MIL 3.4 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.