NBA games

PHX @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
120–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30332334120
CHI30262826110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CHI
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 30 3 4
Jalen Green S 36 25 4 4
Dillon Brooks S 33 15 4 3
Mark Williams S 26 14 8 1
Jordan Goodwin S 24 12 7 1
Collin Gillespie 24 9 3 3
Grayson Allen 16 6 5 2
Oso Ighodaro 22 6 4 2
Royce O'Neale 22 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 31 29 3 6
Collin Sexton S 31 18 9 1
Leonard Miller S 33 17 10 2
Rob Dillingham 20 10 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 36 10 4 5
Mac McClung 11 9 0 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 32 8 9 1
Patrick Williams 24 5 1 3
Yuki Kawamura 6 3 1 2
Lachlan Olbrich 16 1 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 9:38 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Dillon Brooks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
13%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Jalen Green PHX
12%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
11%
6 Nick Richards CHI
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
8 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
7%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.1 4.2 6.9
2 Jalen Green PHX 21.9 5.0 4.4
3 Collin Sexton CHI 19.3 3.2 3.2
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 18.2 4.3 2.2
5 Tre Jones CHI 17.6 4.6 5.6
6 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 3.2 4.4
7 Josh Giddey CHI 15.0 7.9 9.4
8 Leonard Miller CHI 12.8 5.8 1.6
9 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.0 3.5 4.8
10 Oso Ighodaro PHX 12.0 7.8 4.0
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.7 4.3 2.3
12 Rob Dillingham CHI 10.3 2.3 2.2
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.2 2.7 1.6
14 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.7 4.1 1.3
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.2 6.2 2.4
16 Mark Williams PHX 8.7 7.8 1.1
17 Nick Richards CHI 8.7 6.7 0.9
18 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.0 4.0 0.9
19 Patrick Williams CHI 6.3 2.7 1.3
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.2 4.1 1.2
21 Mac McClung CHI 5.1 1.6 0.7
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.6 4.8 0.6
23 Koby Brea PHX 3.8 1.5 1.2
24 Amir Coffey PHX 3.6 1.9 0.8
25 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.5 2.2 1.0
26 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.3 1.3 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.