NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
101–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26203124101
BOS26282635115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja'Kobe Walter S 32 16 2 1
RJ Barrett S 35 15 5 4
Brandon Ingram S 34 15 3 4
Jakob Poeltl S 20 14 2 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 26 12 5 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24 10 6 4
Scottie Barnes S 32 10 6 8
Jamal Shead 26 7 1 5
Jamison Battle 1 2 0 0
Gradey Dick 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 26 6 3
Jayson Tatum S 34 23 13 7
Neemias Queta S 34 18 7 4
Payton Pritchard 30 17 1 3
Derrick White S 35 10 6 6
Sam Hauser S 26 8 2 1
Baylor Scheierman 17 5 5 0
Jordan Walsh 13 4 0 0
Nikola Vucevic 13 4 4 1
Ron Harper Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
6 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
24%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.7 5.9 6.3
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.5 10.1 5.8
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.2 4.4 3.8
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.1 4.9 3.2
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.8 3.8 4.3
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.9 6.7 8.7
7 Derrick White BOS 14.1 4.5 4.0
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.4 7.6 2.1
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.8 4.8 2.0
10 Neemias Queta BOS 12.5 8.9 2.3
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.5 3.5 1.8
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.7 5.1 1.0
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.9 3.3 1.1
14 Luka Garza BOS 8.8 4.2 1.0
15 Nikola Vucevic BOS 8.4 5.5 1.4
16 Jamal Shead TOR 8.1 1.7 6.3
17 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.3 3.5 2.2
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.3 3.3 0.9
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.1 1.6 0.9
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.4 1.7 0.7
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.3 1.6 0.6
22 Jamison Battle TOR 4.3 1.9 0.7
23 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.4 2.4 0.6
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.0 2.4 0.8
25 Alijah Martin TOR 2.7 1.3 0.5
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.3 1.7 0.6
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.5 1.5 0.4
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.6 0.4
29 John Tonje BOS 1.4 0.8 0.2
30 Max Shulga BOS 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.