NBA games

DET @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
116–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET41302421116
PHI3129211293

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHI
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 27 19 4 2
Daniss Jenkins S 32 16 4 14
Jalen Duren S 30 16 7 3
Ausar Thompson S 25 14 5 2
Duncan Robinson S 23 11 2 2
Ronald Holland II 20 11 6 0
Paul Reed 18 10 7 0
Caris LeVert 21 7 2 3
Marcus Sasser 11 5 2 1
Kevin Huerter 25 5 5 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 33 23 1 1
Paul George S 28 20 5 4
VJ Edgecombe S 35 19 6 1
Adem Bona 23 10 4 2
Dominick Barlow 29 8 2 2
Trendon Watford 5 4 1 2
Andre Drummond S 18 4 3 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 24 3 4 1
Cameron Payne 9 2 3 1
MarJon Beauchamp 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Paul George makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Daniss Jenkins DET
12%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
8 Tobias Harris DET
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Quentin Grimes PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
8%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.0 4.9 6.9
2 Jalen Duren DET 24.7 11.4 3.4
3 Paul George PHI 21.8 5.5 4.2
4 Daniss Jenkins DET 21.4 4.3 7.0
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.3 5.8 5.2
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 18.7 4.5 3.4
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 5.7 2.1
8 Tobias Harris DET 14.0 5.2 4.6
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.3 6.6 3.7
10 Duncan Robinson DET 12.2 3.2 2.6
11 Kevin Huerter DET 11.4 3.2 2.7
12 Paul Reed DET 10.0 5.2 1.8
13 Caris LeVert DET 9.7 3.5 2.8
14 Justin Edwards PHI 9.4 2.1 1.5
15 Trendon Watford PHI 8.2 3.6 2.4
16 Cameron Payne PHI 7.3 2.4 1.9
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.8 1.4 2.6
18 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.3 5.3 1.6
19 Javonte Green DET 6.3 2.6 1.0
20 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 6.6 1.9
21 Ronald Holland II DET 6.2 2.8 1.1
22 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 6.0 2.3 1.1
23 Jabari Walker PHI 5.6 2.7 0.9
24 Adem Bona PHI 5.5 4.5 0.6
25 Tolu Smith DET 2.9 3.0 0.7
26 Chaz Lanier DET 2.3 0.7 0.4
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.