NBA games

SA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
134–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SA4329242810134
DEN3629273212136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DEN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 40 34 18 7
Stephon Castle S 40 20 5 9
Julian Champagnie S 33 18 5 2
Devin Vassell S 39 18 5 2
De'Aaron Fox S 40 14 4 4
Dylan Harper 20 12 3 3
Keldon Johnson 17 10 2 0
Harrison Barnes 17 8 1 1
Luke Kornet 13 0 5 1
Carter Bryant 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 44 40 8 13
Christian Braun S 39 21 8 4
Cameron Johnson S 39 17 7 1
Aaron Gordon S 41 15 6 3
Jamal Murray S 46 15 4 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 10 5 0
Jonas Valanciunas 6 7 3 0
Julian Strawther 11 6 1 2
Bruce Brown 11 5 2 1
Tyus Jones 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
3 Stephon Castle SA
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
10%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
7 Luke Kornet SA
8%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
35%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.9 11.7 11.2
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.5 11.8 4.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.7 4.7 7.1
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 6.4 9.0
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.2 4.5 5.6
6 Dylan Harper SA 15.6 4.2 4.8
7 Christian Braun DEN 14.5 4.0 2.3
8 Keldon Johnson SA 14.2 4.0 2.1
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.5 3.8 2.7
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.2 4.7 2.4
11 Devin Vassell SA 12.9 4.1 3.0
12 Julian Champagnie SA 11.4 5.1 1.9
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.9 2.5 1.7
14 Bruce Brown DEN 9.1 3.1 1.6
15 Harrison Barnes SA 8.4 2.6 1.8
16 Luke Kornet SA 5.9 5.5 1.4
17 KJ Simpson DEN 5.4 1.8 2.2
18 Carter Bryant SA 4.9 3.3 1.1
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.4 1.5 0.9
20 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.3 3.0 0.8
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.7 1.8 1.1
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.3 1.4
23 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.5 1.1 0.6
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.3 1.1 0.7
25 David Roddy DEN 3.1 1.5 0.6
26 Mason Plumlee SA 2.9 2.5 1.0
27 Lindy Waters III SA 2.9 0.8 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.8 1.7 0.6
29 Curtis Jones DEN 2.2 0.7 0.5
30 Tyus Jones DEN 2.1 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.