NBA games

WSH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
136–152
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH32253445136
MIA36414530152

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley S 37 31 5 0
Sharife Cooper 25 20 2 7
Jaden Hardy 25 19 2 2
Jamir Watkins 19 14 3 1
Justin Champagnie 21 12 10 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 25 12 3 2
Tre Johnson S 25 11 3 4
Bub Carrington S 27 11 2 5
Anthony Gill S 22 6 5 3
Julian Reese 10 0 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 32 3 4
Kel'el Ware 36 24 19 2
Andrew Wiggins S 26 21 2 3
Pelle Larsson S 24 16 7 4
Bam Adebayo S 24 14 9 7
Kasparas Jakucionis 28 14 3 9
Davion Mitchell S 26 12 4 6
Simone Fontecchio S 19 8 1 4
Dru Smith 12 6 0 1
Nikola Jovic 13 5 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot running jump shot (Simone Fontecchio assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
2 Pelle Larsson MIA
10%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
5 Will Riley WSH
8%
6 Julian Reese WSH
8%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.1 10.7 4.1
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.4 4.9 5.4
3 Will Riley WSH 19.0 3.6 3.8
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.7 5.1 3.5
5 Pelle Larsson MIA 16.5 4.2 4.0
6 Bub Carrington WSH 14.6 2.9 5.1
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.0 4.4 5.4
8 Julian Reese WSH 13.1 11.3 2.1
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 12.9 4.8 2.3
10 Jaden Hardy WSH 12.0 2.3 2.0
11 Tre Johnson WSH 12.0 3.3 2.2
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.9 3.1 5.4
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 11.8 4.1 1.6
14 Anthony Gill WSH 11.3 4.9 2.5
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.1 5.2 1.7
16 Sharife Cooper WSH 9.6 3.4 3.8
17 Leaky Black WSH 9.6 5.8 1.7
18 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.9 6.1 1.5
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.9 2.5 1.2
20 Jamir Watkins WSH 7.6 4.2 2.3
21 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.5 2.7 2.2
22 Dru Smith MIA 5.2 2.5 2.1
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.0 2.8 0.8
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.8 1.6 0.5
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.8 1.4 0.5
26 Trevor Keels MIA 2.7 0.8 0.6
27 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.