NBA games

NO @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
113–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO30362621113
SAC21343032117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears 37 28 8 6
Saddiq Bey S 29 20 1 3
Jordan Hawkins 21 14 0 0
Trey Murphy III S 32 13 4 4
Zion Williamson S 29 13 6 3
Derik Queen 28 8 6 2
Micah Peavy 32 8 3 3
Yves Missi S 20 6 7 2
Herbert Jones S 13 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Maxime Raynaud S 29 28 9 4
Nique Clifford S 39 23 5 6
Daeqwon Plowden 31 17 3 1
DeMar DeRozan S 23 14 2 5
Precious Achiuwa S 25 12 7 2
Devin Carter S 32 9 6 3
Dylan Cardwell 24 6 8 1
Killian Hayes 20 5 3 5
Doug McDermott 18 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC
13%
3 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
5 Herbert Jones NO
8%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
7 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
8 Saddiq Bey NO
7%
9 De'Andre Hunter SAC
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
11%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.0 6.6
2 Trey Murphy III NO 21.3 5.6 3.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 20.7 5.3 3.1
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC 18.9 8.0 2.2
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC 18.4 10.7 1.8
6 Saddiq Bey NO 18.1 4.7 3.1
7 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 14.4 3.3 1.9
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.6 2.9 3.7
9 Keegan Murray SAC 13.1 4.6 2.0
10 Nique Clifford SAC 12.9 4.9 4.3
11 De'Andre Hunter SAC 12.4 3.3 2.0
12 Devin Carter SAC 11.9 3.8 3.0
13 Herbert Jones NO 10.7 3.4 3.3
14 Derik Queen NO 9.2 5.3 2.4
15 Doug McDermott SAC 8.0 2.0 1.4
16 Killian Hayes SAC 7.3 3.0 3.8
17 Jordan Poole NO 6.9 2.3 2.4
18 Yves Missi NO 6.7 6.7 1.7
19 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.5 6.6 1.8
20 Hunter Dickinson NO 5.2 2.9 1.1
21 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.5 6.0 0.8
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.0 3.4 0.7
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.5 5.6 0.8
24 Trey Alexander NO 3.4 1.4 0.8
25 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.7 0.9 0.5
26 Micah Peavy NO 2.5 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.