Friday, April 3, 2026

ORL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final

138–127

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ORL	38	33	40	27	138
DAL	31	27	34	35	127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (ORL) games this season

ORL away

home DAL

42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Wendell Carter Jr. S	36	28	6	3	8/16	2/3	6
Desmond Bane S	33	27	7	5	8/13	3/5	27
Tristan da Silva	29	19	5	1	6/11	3/4	-6
Jalen Suggs S	31	19	4	9	8/12	3/6	0
Franz Wagner S	17	18	4	1	8/12	0/3	18
Paolo Banchero S	31	10	7	5	4/10	1/1	-9
Jamal Cain	21	8	4	4	2/3	1/2	7
Jevon Carter	20	5	1	4	2/4	1/2	6
Goga Bitadze	12	2	4	2	0/1	0/0	5
Jett Howard	5	2	0	0	1/1	0/0	3

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Cooper Flagg S	34	51	6	3	19/30	6/9	-2
Brandon Williams	26	23	2	5	7/15	0/3	-11
Klay Thompson	22	18	1	2	7/13	4/10	-11
Max Christie S	29	14	5	3	4/7	3/6	8
Naji Marshall S	24	9	4	2	3/12	1/3	-16
Daniel Gafford S	20	7	3	1	2/3	0/0	3
AJ Johnson	2	2	1	0	1/1	0/0	1
Ryan Nembhard S	22	2	7	5	1/6	0/4	0
Tyler Smith	6	1	2	0	0/2	0/2	-2
Khris Middleton	12	0	1	1	0/4	0/3	-10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1

"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Cooper Flagg DAL

13%

2 Daniel Gafford DAL

12%

3 Franz Wagner ORL

10%

4 Naji Marshall DAL

10%

5 Paolo Banchero ORL

10%

6 Desmond Bane ORL

10%

7 Jalen Suggs ORL

8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL

9 Max Christie DAL

10 Khris Middleton DAL

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

10%

Free Throw

33%

Jumper

20%

Layup

32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Paolo Banchero	ORL	25.0	7.1	6.3	10	7	5
2	Cooper Flagg	DAL	24.8	6.8	6.4	51	6	3
3	Naji Marshall	DAL	20.4	4.7	5.2	9	4	2
4	Desmond Bane	ORL	20.0	4.4	4.5	27	7	5
5	Franz Wagner	ORL	18.9	4.6	3.4	18	4	1
6	Daniel Gafford	DAL	15.6	9.6	1.9	7	3	1
7	Jalen Suggs	ORL	15.5	4.8	6.5	19	4	9
8	Wendell Carter Jr.	ORL	14.3	7.0	2.0	28	6	3
9	Tristan da Silva	ORL	12.4	3.4	2.2	19	5	1
10	Brandon Williams	DAL	12.1	3.2	4.1	23	2	5
11	Max Christie	DAL	9.9	2.8	1.6	14	5	3
12	Klay Thompson	DAL	9.4	1.6	1.5	18	1	2
13	Khris Middleton	DAL	9.1	3.2	1.8	0	1	1
14	Jamal Cain	ORL	8.8	3.2	1.5	8	4	4
15	Jevon Carter	ORL	8.4	2.5	2.0	5	1	4
16	Ryan Nembhard	DAL	7.6	2.5	5.5	2	7	5
17	Jett Howard	ORL	5.9	1.8	1.0	2	0	0
18	John Poulakidas	DAL	5.4	1.9	0.8	0	4	2
19	Goga Bitadze	ORL	5.2	3.8	1.7	2	4	2
20	Moritz Wagner	ORL	4.6	2.6	0.9	—	—	—
21	Dwight Powell	DAL	3.9	3.3	0.9	0	5	1
22	Jase Richardson	ORL	3.9	1.5	1.2	0	0	0
23	Noah Penda	ORL	3.8	2.2	1.6	0	1	1
24	Tyler Smith	DAL	3.1	2.0	0.7	1	2	0
25	AJ Johnson	DAL	2.7	1.3	0.9	2	1	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.