NBA games

BOS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
133–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS43323028133
MIL26292125101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIL
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 30 26 3 4
Jayson Tatum S 31 23 11 9
Neemias Queta S 29 19 10 2
Derrick White S 31 17 3 5
Payton Pritchard 26 16 3 6
Sam Hauser S 27 13 6 2
Jordan Walsh 12 7 2 0
Charles Bassey 6 6 1 0
Hugo Gonzalez 6 2 2 0
Baylor Scheierman 23 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Taurean Prince 25 18 0 2
AJ Green S 31 15 1 5
Kyle Kuzma S 25 14 7 3
Pete Nance S 33 14 10 1
Cormac Ryan 33 11 1 2
Ousmane Dieng S 24 9 3 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 10 7 0 1
Gary Harris 15 5 1 3
Myles Turner S 19 4 1 0
Jericho Sims 16 3 4 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 1-foot floating jump shot (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
10%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Jericho Sims MIL
8%
7 Ousmane Dieng MIL
8%
8 Myles Turner MIL
7%
9 Pete Nance MIL
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
23%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.0 6.0 7.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.0 9.8 5.3
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.5 3.8 4.1
4 Derrick White BOS 16.5 4.9 4.5
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.7 3.5 3.0
6 Ousmane Dieng MIL 14.3 4.2 4.1
7 Neemias Queta BOS 12.1 8.8 2.4
8 Luka Garza BOS 10.1 4.0 1.2
9 AJ Green MIL 9.5 3.4 1.9
10 Myles Turner MIL 9.0 4.1 1.5
11 Sam Hauser BOS 8.7 3.3 1.2
12 Pete Nance MIL 8.7 3.9 1.5
13 Taurean Prince MIL 8.4 3.0 1.8
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.2 4.1 2.2
15 Jericho Sims MIL 6.7 6.6 1.5
16 Cormac Ryan MIL 6.7 1.2 0.8
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.4 2.4 1.2
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.4 3.3 0.9
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.8 1.1 0.5
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.5 2.4 0.5
21 Charles Bassey BOS 2.7 4.0 0.3
22 Gary Harris MIL 1.9 0.7 0.6
23 Amari Williams BOS 1.8 1.7 0.5
24 Max Shulga BOS 1.8 0.8 0.5
25 John Tonje BOS 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.