NBA games

TOR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
128–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26333732128
MEM2120312496

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MEM
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 29 25 3 4
Collin Murray-Boyles 23 19 4 1
Brandon Ingram S 26 17 7 5
Jamal Shead 23 11 1 6
Scottie Barnes S 23 10 3 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 10 6 2
A.J. Lawson 13 8 3 0
Jakob Poeltl S 23 8 7 4
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 7 8 1
Gradey Dick 7 7 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 30 30 5 1
Cedric Coward S 27 15 2 1
Javon Small S 27 14 6 4
Taylor Hendricks S 26 9 3 1
Dariq Whitehead 22 8 4 2
Toby Okani 28 7 7 0
Lucas Williamson 20 5 4 2
Rayan Rupert S 25 4 4 1
Jahmai Mashack 14 2 1 1
Adama Bal 20 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
3 GG Jackson MEM
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
7 Taylor Hendricks MEM
7%
8 Rayan Rupert MEM
6%
9 Javon Small MEM
6%
10 Jamal Shead TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.7 5.2 4.5
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.4 5.0 3.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.7 8.2 9.5
4 GG Jackson MEM 18.5 4.6 2.2
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.8 8.6 2.4
6 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.9 5.1 2.4
7 Javon Small MEM 13.7 3.5 4.6
8 Cedric Coward MEM 13.6 4.9 2.5
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 11.6 3.4 2.1
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.5 5.2 1.3
11 Rayan Rupert MEM 10.5 4.5 1.3
12 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.5 2.8 4.5
13 Cam Spencer MEM 10.1 2.2 4.8
14 Jahmai Mashack MEM 10.0 3.4 2.0
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.3 5.7 1.2
16 Adama Bal MEM 9.1 2.6 2.0
17 Jamal Shead TOR 8.6 2.1 6.9
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 1.6 1.2
19 A.J. Lawson TOR 5.0 1.9 0.9
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 1.6 0.7
21 Alijah Martin TOR 3.6 1.5 0.7
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.2 2.4 0.9
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.8 1.0 0.8
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.6 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.