NBA games

UTAH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
106140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22282828106
HOU34353833140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home HOU
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cody Williams S 38 27 11 4
Ace Bailey S 33 22 6 1
Brice Sensabaugh S 33 20 3 5
Kyle Filipowski S 30 17 7 2
Oscar Tshiebwe 21 15 10 1
John Konchar S 30 3 5 3
Kennedy Chandler 25 2 1 4
Bez Mbeng 29 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 30 25 5 6
Amen Thompson S 32 21 8 4
Alperen Sengun S 28 19 4 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 18 5 0
Tari Eason 22 16 7 0
Reed Sheppard S 29 12 2 7
Dorian Finney-Smith 9 7 2 1
Jae'Sean Tate 12 7 6 2
Aaron Holiday 18 6 2 3
JD Davison 7 5 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 11-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
12%
3 Cody Williams UTAH
10%
4 Isaiah Collier UTAH
9%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
10 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
23%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.3 5.0 6.9
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.7 8.8 7.0
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 23.6 4.5 3.6
4 Cody Williams UTAH 19.5 4.2 4.7
5 Ace Bailey UTAH 19.3 4.6 3.0
6 Amen Thompson HOU 19.1 9.1 5.5
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.4 7.4 3.1
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 17.0 7.3 4.1
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 16.8 4.5 5.5
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 16.7 3.0 5.9
11 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 14.1 3.5 5.7
12 Elijah Harkless UTAH 11.3 3.0 3.6
13 Tari Eason HOU 10.4 6.2 1.6
14 John Konchar UTAH 9.2 6.1 2.3
15 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 7.7 6.5 1.1
16 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.4 2.0 1.2
17 Bez Mbeng UTAH 7.3 3.3 3.1
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.5 1.5
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.4 5.6 1.1
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.3 2.5 1.5
21 Kevin Love UTAH 4.0 4.6 1.2
22 JD Davison HOU 3.7 1.8 1.3
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 1.5 0.7
24 Josh Okogie HOU 3.5 1.7 1.1
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.