NBA games

CHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
96–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI1625312496
NY38403028136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NY
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 29 19 2 1
Leonard Miller 28 14 6 0
Tre Jones S 26 13 3 8
Matas Buzelis S 23 11 6 0
Lachlan Olbrich 11 8 2 1
Patrick Williams 21 7 3 2
Isaac Okoro S 26 7 1 2
Josh Giddey S 26 6 5 5
Guerschon Yabusele S 25 5 4 1
Yuki Kawamura 5 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 31 31 8 2
Mitchell Robinson S 23 17 11 0
Jalen Brunson S 30 17 1 10
Mikal Bridges S 23 12 2 0
Tyler Kolek 12 8 0 2
Landry Shamet 13 8 1 1
Josh Hart S 28 7 11 4
Jeremy Sochan 17 7 8 1
Mohamed Diawara 12 6 1 2
Miles McBride 13 6 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mitchell Robinson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Mitchell Robinson makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
14%
2 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
6 OG Anunoby NY
7%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Jose Alvarado NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.9 3.8 8.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.7 12.0 4.5
3 Collin Sexton CHI 20.2 3.1 3.6
4 Tre Jones CHI 19.0 4.4 5.2
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 18.8 7.1 2.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 18.5 5.1 3.0
7 Josh Giddey CHI 17.6 7.3 9.2
8 Josh Hart NY 15.4 7.3 4.4
9 Mikal Bridges NY 14.0 3.5 3.4
10 Leonard Miller CHI 12.4 5.9 1.7
11 Miles McBride NY 11.7 3.0 3.7
12 Rob Dillingham CHI 11.0 2.3 2.5
13 Landry Shamet NY 10.2 2.8 1.7
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.1 2.8 1.5
15 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.1 2.7 1.7
16 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.1 4.0 1.4
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.2 10.4 1.3
18 Jose Alvarado NY 7.1 2.0 3.9
19 Patrick Williams CHI 5.9 2.7 1.1
20 Mac McClung CHI 5.4 1.8 0.7
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.6 2.0 1.1
22 Tyler Kolek NY 4.2 1.6 2.4
23 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.5 1.5 2.4
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.3 1.6 0.9
25 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.1 2.3 0.7
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 2.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.