NBA games

ATL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
141–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL35362743141
BKN25303022107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BKN
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 25 25 2 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 21 4 3
Jalen Johnson S 28 18 11 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 15 7 4
Corey Kispert 15 13 2 1
Jonathan Kuminga 21 12 2 1
Dyson Daniels S 29 11 4 6
Christian Koloko 4 5 1 0
Asa Newell 5 5 1 2
Mouhamed Gueye 17 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nic Claxton S 25 16 5 2
Malachi Smith 17 15 2 0
Nolan Traore S 29 13 2 4
Noah Clowney S 21 12 4 1
Chaney Johnson 23 11 6 4
Josh Minott 21 10 3 0
Ziaire Williams 21 8 3 3
Terance Mann S 23 8 2 1
Drake Powell S 29 6 2 4
Trevon Scott 8 6 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Nolan Traore BKN
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
9 Drake Powell BKN
7%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
28%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.5 9.6 8.1
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 24.0 4.2 4.3
3 CJ McCollum ATL 19.3 3.4 5.0
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.8 7.8 4.1
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.0 6.4 3.2
6 Ben Saraf BKN 12.7 3.5 4.2
7 Ziaire Williams BKN 12.4 2.8 1.9
8 Josh Minott BKN 11.7 3.3 1.6
9 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 9.5 4.7 1.8
10 Nolan Traore BKN 9.4 2.8 4.5
11 Drake Powell BKN 8.9 2.3 1.3
12 Noah Clowney BKN 8.5 3.7 1.5
13 Chaney Johnson BKN 8.4 4.5 2.1
14 Nic Claxton BKN 8.3 5.8 1.8
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 7.7 3.6 0.8
16 Tyson Etienne BKN 7.6 1.5 1.8
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 7.3 2.4 1.1
18 Ochai Agbaji BKN 6.8 2.6 0.9
19 Malachi Smith BKN 6.1 2.3 2.0
20 Terance Mann BKN 6.0 3.3 1.6
21 Corey Kispert ATL 5.2 1.7 1.0
22 Asa Newell ATL 5.0 2.3 0.6
23 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.7 1.7 1.3
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.4 3.1 1.1
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.9 2.7 1.3
26 Buddy Hield ATL 3.6 1.5 1.0
27 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.2 1.3 0.5
28 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.0 1.2 0.7
29 Christian Koloko ATL 2.4 2.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.