NBA games

MIN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
103–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN17302432103
PHI19224232115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHI
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 37 21 7 3
Bones Hyland 30 21 5 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 19 5 3
Naz Reid 29 12 7 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 11 0 1
Anthony Edwards S 26 8 2 3
Kyle Anderson 14 6 1 5
Rudy Gobert S 29 5 16 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 9 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 38 23 6 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. 30 21 5 1
Tyrese Maxey S 35 21 6 8
Joel Embiid S 34 19 13 7
Quentin Grimes 25 10 4 1
VJ Edgecombe S 37 8 2 3
Dominick Barlow S 26 7 10 1
Andre Drummond 9 4 6 0
Adem Bona 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
VJ Edgecombe · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"VJ Edgecombe makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
4 Paul George PHI
11%
5 Julius Randle MIN
9%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
8 Adem Bona PHI
8%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
16%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.1 7.6 5.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.8 4.8 7.1
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.2 4.5 4.6
4 Julius Randle MIN 23.0 6.0 5.3
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 22.1 6.0 5.8
6 Paul George PHI 20.9 5.7 4.2
7 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.5 4.5 3.9
8 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 17.9 6.6 5.0
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 6.0 2.3
10 Naz Reid MIN 13.6 5.8 1.9
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.4 11.5 1.5
12 Bones Hyland MIN 12.8 2.5 2.8
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.2 3.8 2.5
14 Justin Edwards PHI 10.0 2.4 1.6
15 Trendon Watford PHI 8.7 4.0 2.5
16 Cameron Payne PHI 7.9 2.7 2.0
17 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 6.7 2.6 1.2
18 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.5 5.1 1.8
19 Andre Drummond PHI 6.4 7.0 2.0
20 Jabari Walker PHI 6.3 3.0 1.0
21 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 5.8 0.9
22 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.7 4.4 2.6
23 Mike Conley MIN 5.1 2.1 3.1
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.8 1.9 1.1
25 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.9 1.5 0.6
26 Joan Beringer MIN 2.9 2.0 0.5
27 Julian Phillips MIN 2.8 0.9 0.4
28 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.8 0.6
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.3 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.