NBA games

IND @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
108–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24263226108
CHA38313129129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHA
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 30 7 2
Quenton Jackson S 25 16 3 5
Kobe Brown S 28 12 9 4
Jay Huff S 24 12 6 4
Obi Toppin 20 11 4 1
Kam Jones 23 7 6 10
Ben Sheppard S 25 7 3 2
Taelon Peter 18 6 2 1
Micah Potter 13 4 2 0
Ethan Thompson 30 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 30 22 6 3
Kon Knueppel S 30 20 4 4
Miles Bridges S 26 19 6 1
LaMelo Ball S 30 18 6 9
Sion James 23 13 6 3
Coby White 14 11 3 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 25 7 8 2
Pat Connaughton 18 7 3 1
Josh Green 24 6 2 2
Tre Mann 4 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes layup (Jay Huff assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Aaron Nesmith IND
11%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
6 Quenton Jackson IND
9%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
8 Kobe Brown IND
8%
9 Ethan Thompson IND
8%
10 Jay Huff IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
23%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.1 6.1 3.8
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.9 4.6 7.3
3 Coby White CHA 19.1 4.2 3.8
4 Brandon Miller CHA 19.1 4.5 3.8
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 16.8 5.4 3.4
6 Miles Bridges CHA 16.2 5.1 2.3
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.7 3.1 1.8
8 Obi Toppin IND 10.8 3.6 2.6
9 Kobe Brown IND 10.0 3.7 2.1
10 Jay Huff IND 8.6 3.5 1.4
11 Taelon Peter IND 8.6 2.5 1.7
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 2.6 1.3
13 Micah Potter IND 7.4 3.4 1.1
14 Ethan Thompson IND 7.0 2.2 1.5
15 Grant Williams CHA 6.6 3.6 1.4
16 Kam Jones IND 6.5 2.1 4.1
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.4 4.4 1.1
18 Quenton Jackson IND 6.3 2.1 3.2
19 Sion James CHA 5.7 2.9 1.9
20 Josh Green CHA 4.4 1.6 0.8
21 Tre Mann CHA 3.2 1.2 0.8
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.0 1.4 0.7
23 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.5 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.